第一财经

CBO warns that the cost of Trump's "Golden Fleet" could reach $275 billion, and there may be insufficient capacity at U.S. shipyards to build it.

原文:CBO预警特朗普“黄金舰队”造价或达2750亿美元,且美国造船厂产能不足

Summary of Key Points

The United States plans to build 15 nuclear-powered “Trump-class” battleships, with total costs potentially reaching as high as $275 billion ($23.4 billion for the first ship and $18 billion for each subsequent one), making it one of the most expensive surface warfare ship projects in history. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that American shipyards lack the necessary capacity, and the technology does not match the requirements of this project. Additionally, past shipbuilding initiatives have frequently experienced cost overruns and delays. Moreover, this plan is influenced by Trump’s personal fondness for World War II battleships; he even personally participated in the design process.

Detailed Analysis

1. The Price Tag: $275 Billion – An Exorbitantly Costly Project

Just for context, the current mainstay destroyer class in the U.S. military, the “Arlie Burke-class,” costs approximately $1.8 billion per ship. Each Trump-class battleship costs $18 billion—equivalent to the cost of 10 Arlie Burke-class destroyers! The total cost of $275 billion is roughly one-tenth of the U.S. military budget for 2023 (which was around $886 billion that year). Why is it so expensive? Firstly, nuclear propulsion systems are inherently costly and technically complex. Secondly, the battleships have a much larger displacement (35,000 tons, compared to the Burke-class’s 10,000 tons). Thirdly, they are equipped with advanced technologies such as hypersonic weapons and electromagnetic railguns, which are extremely expensive to develop and deploy.

2. Capacity Challenges: American Shipyards Struggling to Meet the Demand

The CBO’s main concern is not the cost, but the ability to actually build these battleships. There are several issues:

  • Inadequate Capacity of Existing Shipyards: The Bath Iron Works and Ingalls Shipbuilding Corporation, which build destroyers, have experienced average delays of five years for the Arlie Burke-class and have never built nuclear-powered ships before (nuclear propulsion requires specialized reactors and protective systems).
  • Overloaded Nuclear Power Shipyards: The only shipyard capable of building nuclear-powered vessels, Newport News Shipbuilding Corporation, is already busy with the construction of aircraft carriers and submarines, which are also on schedule delays. Adding battleships to its workload would only further slow down these other projects.
  • Doubling Displacement Requirements: By 2035, the total displacement of large surface ships required by the navy is expected to more than double, outstripping the production capacity of existing shipyards.

3. Persistent Problems: Delays and Cost Overruns are Common in U.S. Shipbuilding

The U.S. shipping industry has a long history of such issues: In 2025, Navy Secretary Kenneth Renfroe stated that even the best shipbuilding projects at the time had cost overruns of 57% and schedule delays of six months. The Arlie Burke-class destroyers were delivered with average delays of five years, and the first ship of each model often exceeded budget estimates. With the Trump-class being a completely new nuclear-powered design, the risks for the first ship are even greater; the CBO explicitly predicts that the cost and construction time for the first ship will likely exceed initial forecasts.

4. A Project Driven by Personal Sentiment? Trump’s Love for World War II Battleships

The origins of this project are quite interesting. When Trump announced the “Golden Fleet” initiative last year, he cited a 1952 documentary titled “Sea Victory” (which he watched at the age of eight) and expressed his nostalgia for World War II battleships like the USS Iowa. He mentioned that these ships were made from steel 7 inches thick and could cut through waves effortlessly. Trump claimed to have personally participated in the design process, emphasizing that the battleships should be visually impressive, while also criticizing the aesthetics of stealth designs (although he later stated that his ships should be both attractive and stealthy). This indicates that the project is driven more by personal sentiment than purely military needs.

Conclusion

The Trump-class battleship project is an incredibly expensive and challenging endeavor. Not only are the costs staggering, but American shipyards are struggling to meet the production demands. There are numerous historical issues, and the entire plan is tainted by Trump’s personal preferences for World War II-era battleships. Whether the project can be completed on time and within budget remains highly uncertain. In simple terms, this seems like a vanity project with extremely high practical difficulties.