Summary of Key Points
Japan's population decline has reached a critical stage: By 2025, the population is expected to decrease by 910,000 year-on-year (the largest drop in 17 years), falling below 120 million; the number of newborns will be only 670,000 (the lowest for 10 consecutive years and 15 years earlier than expected, below 700,000). The low birth rate (children under 14 accounting for just 11.13%) is a persistent issue. The government has been implementing measures for over 20 years (subsidies, childcare support, and vacation reforms) with little effect. The root cause lies in the lack of confidence young people have in the future—unstable jobs, large income disparities, and high costs associated with marriage and childbirth, leading to a situation where they "want to marry but dare not, and want to have children but cannot." To solve this problem, it is essential to provide young people with a "visible future."
I. Accelerating Population Decline: Faster than Experts Expected
Japan's population decline is not new, but the 2025 figures are alarming:
- Population Back to 42 Years Ago: The total population has dropped to 119.73 million, 910,000 fewer than last year, marking the largest decrease in 17 years—equivalent to the population of a medium-sized city disappearing.
- Newborns at an Unexpected Low: With 670,000 births, there is a 15,000-person decrease from 2024, and this is the lowest figure for 10 consecutive years. More frighteningly, this is 15 years earlier than the National Institute of Population Research's prediction of falling below 700,000 births; by 2070, the population could be as low as 87 million, and in 100 years, it might be less than 50 million.
- Shrinking Families: The total number of families is slightly increasing, but on average, each family has only two people. An increase in single-person and small families indicates that young people are reluctant to marry and have children, leading to an even smaller population in the future.
II. The Root Cause of the Low Birth Rate: Young People "Wanting to Have Children but Not Daring to"
The low birth rate is primarily due to practical difficulties rather than a lack of desire:
- High Costs: Marriage requires buying a house, and raising children involves education expenses—long-term investments. Japanese expert Wakawa Wakuhiko describes this as a form of "deflation in marriage and childbirth," meaning people want to have children but cannot afford them.
- Unstable Jobs: The traditional lifetime employment system is disappearing, with many young people working in informal jobs (36.8%) or struggling to find new jobs (15.3% of young people wanted to change jobs in 2023, only 4.8% actually did). Without stable income, who would dare to have children?
- Uneven Time and Burdens: Long working hours in Japan mean men often lack time to help with household chores and childcare. Women either give up their careers to become full-time housewives (with lower incomes) or juggle work and parenting (under great pressure), leading some to choose not to have children.
III. Government Measures: Much Hype, Little Effect
The Japanese government has made efforts, considering the low birth rate a national crisis for over 20 years and implementing various policies:
- Financial Support: Child subsidies, maternity allowances, education fee reductions, and a new "Childcare Support Tax" starting in 2026.
- Childcare and Healthcare: More kindergartens have been built, and salaries for childcare workers have been increased; infertility treatments are now covered by health insurance.
- Vacation Reforms: Changes to parental leave policies.
However, these measures have not solved the problem because they do not address the core concerns of young people: No amount of financial support can alleviate anxiety about future income uncertainty. While childcare issues have been addressed, unstable jobs and low incomes remain. Netizens criticize the newly established "Child and Family Agency," which has been in place for three years without reversing the declining birth rate.
IV. Young People's Anxiety About the Future: Low Incomes and Uncertainty
Young people's reluctance to marry and have children stems from a lack of confidence in the future:
- Large Income Disparities: The gap between regular employees and informal workers is enormous—up to 100 million yen (about 4.29 million RMB) per lifetime. Employees of large companies earn significantly more than those of small and medium-sized businesses. Since most informal workers are young, they struggle to support themselves, let alone their children.
- Job Uncertainty: Only 3% of regular employees succeed in getting better jobs, and it is difficult for informal workers to transition to formal roles. Everyone is hesitant to make long-term plans (such as marriage and childbirth).
- Delayed Marriage: The average age of first marriage is 31 for men and 29.7 for women, which further reduces the birth rate.
V. The Solution: Providing a "Visible Future" for Young People
In the past, Japan's rapid economic growth gave young people confidence through the lifetime employment system and seniority-based promotions. While we cannot return to that era, we must at least show them:
- Job Stability: Whether formal or informal, jobs should provide secure incomes so they don't worry about unemployment.
- Predictable Income: Hard work should lead to decent rewards, ensuring they can afford to raise children.
- Affordable Living: The costs of marriage and childbirth should be manageable, without being overwhelmed by mortgage and education expenses.
In short, young people need to feel that the future is predictable; only then will they be willing to marry and have children, and the low birth rate will improve. Otherwise, more subsidies and kindergartens will only address symptoms, not the root cause.
This news report highlights that Japan's population problem is not just about a low birth rate but also about a crisis of confidence in the future among young people. To solve this issue, we must first address their expectations and provide them with a brighter outlook.