Summary of Key Points
In April this year, the State Council issued a policy stating that by 2030, the total scale of China's service industry should exceed 100 trillion yuan. Subsequently, various regions have introduced their own plans to break down these goals. Economically strong provinces (such as Guangdong and Jiangsu) have set even higher targets, with the combined goals of the top ten provinces accounting for more than 55% of the national target. Shanghai, due to its particularly developed service industry, has a much higher goal despite ranking ninth in GDP. The service industry has already become a significant pillar of China's economy, and its contribution to growth continues to rise.
Detailed Explanation
1. The Service Industry as a "Ballast Stone" for Economic Growth
The service industry, also known as the tertiary sector, includes industries such as catering, logistics, finance, tourism, and education, which do not directly produce physical goods. According to data, China's service industry will reach a total scale of 80.9 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 5.8% over the past five years (2021-2025)—this is 0.4 percentage points faster than the overall GDP growth rate and 0.9 percentage points faster than the industrial sector. The proportion of the service industry in GDP has increased from 55.5% in 2020 to 57.7% in 2025, accounting for more than half of the national economy for eleven consecutive years. By 2025, 61.4 yuan out of every 100 yuan of GDP growth will come from the service industry, an increase of 6.3 yuan compared to 2020. This indicates that the service industry has become a major driver of economic growth, akin to the "ballast stone" that stabilizes a ship.
2. The State Council Sets a Goal: Over 100 Trillion Yuan for the Service Industry by 2030
The policy issued by the State Council in April aims to exceed the 100-trillion-yuan mark for the service industry by 2030, with a focus on higher quality, better structure, improved standards, and greater vitality. This means that the proportion of high-end services (such as research and development, digital services) will increase, and consumers will enjoy higher-quality services (e.g., better healthcare and education). This goal is based on the current growth momentum of the service industry and aims to continue driving high-quality economic development in the future.
3. Regional Goals: Economically Strong Provinces Take the Lead
The State Council's goal of 100 trillion yuan is not arbitrary; each region must contribute to its achievement. The targets set by different regions are as follows:
- Guangdong and Jiangsu, the top two in GDP, have the highest goals: Guangdong aims to exceed 11 trillion yuan, and Jiangsu nearly 10 trillion yuan.
- Shandong and Zhejiang, ranked third and fourth, aim for over 7 trillion yuan each (7.2 trillion yuan and over 7 trillion yuan, respectively).
- Among the top ten provinces, Sichuan, Henan, and Fujian aim for 5 trillion yuan, 4.6 trillion yuan, and 4 trillion yuan, respectively.
- The combined goals of these eight provinces are nearly 55 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 55% of the national target. In other words, regions with larger economic volumes have higher service industry targets because they have a stronger foundation and greater capacity to contribute.
4. Shanghai: An "Exception"
Although Shanghai ranks ninth in GDP, its service industry goal (6 trillion yuan) is higher than that of provinces ranked ahead of it (Sichuan at 5 trillion yuan, Henan at 4.6 trillion yuan, and Fujian at 4 trillion yuan). This is because Shanghai's service industry is a major driver of economic growth, accounting for 79.3% of its GDP in 2025, with a contribution of over 80%. Shanghai leads the country in finance, logistics, and exhibition services. Therefore, Shanghai's goal is not only to expand the scale of its service industry but also to build globally competitive enterprises and clusters to enhance the influence of "Shanghai Services" worldwide.
5. The Logic Behind the Goals: Considering Both GDP Rank and Industrial Advantages
The goals set by different regions are based on two main criteria:
1. The total GDP of the region: Regions with higher GDP generally have higher service industry targets (e.g., Guangdong and Jiangsu).
2. The regional industrial characteristics: Regions with a strong service industry foundation, such as Shanghai, have higher goals, even if their GDP rankings are not high. For example, Zhejiang has specifically emphasized the importance of "productive services" (services that support industries, such as logistics and research and development) due to its developed manufacturing sector.
In summary, expanding and improving the quality of the service industry is a key focus for economic development in the coming years. Both the national government and local authorities are making efforts, with clear goals and a focused approach. This strategy aims to drive economic growth while also providing better services to the public.