Summary of the Core Content
The US-Iran conflict has reached a stalemate where neither side can make a move: Trump, due to the midterms (just 85 days away), is unable to force Iran to yield through military action or sanctions in the short term and can only choose to "concede and defend" to maintain the status quo. Iran, on the other hand, uses a strategy of "offering negotiations to create hope while simultaneously imposing harsh conditions as a provocation" to prevent domestic conflicts from erupting and to stabilize its regime. Neither side is willing to back down, but they also dare not cross each other's red lines. The deadlock may be broken after the midterms, and Trump's current apathetic demeanor seems more like a political performance.
Detailed Analysis
1. Trump's "Time Deadlock": No Solution in 85 Days, So He Must Concede
The midterms are on November 3rd, leaving only 85 days. Trump faces two impossibilities: militarily, he cannot defeat Iran within 85 days (Iran has considerable military strength and is not easily defeated); economically, sanctions and blockades have not caused Iran's economy to collapse enough for it to negotiate willingly.
Therefore, he has chosen a passive approach, stating publicly that they are only engaged in partial negotiations and acting discreetly. Vice President Pence also supports this strategy, suggesting the use of comprehensive measures. The goal is to prolong the situation of "neither fighting nor negotiating" until after the elections—after all, any major incident before the election could ruin his chances.
2. Iran's "Duplicitous Tactics": Negotiating While Provoking, All for Stability
Iran's tactics are quite cunning: they first negotiate openly with Oman, claiming good progress without disclosing the results (to give both domestically and internationally the impression of hope), then suddenly propose a series of unrealistic demands to the US (lifting sanctions, withdrawing troops, paying war reparations, unfreezing assets, etc.).
Why do they do this? If Iran does nothing, domestic conflicts will arise under the pressure of sanctions (clashes among the elite and unrest among the people). By negotiating, they give people hope; by provoking the US, they create a "common enemy" to unite the populace against opposition. However, Iran is cautious not to go too far—if they successfully sink a US warship or cause significant casualties, the US will respond decisively, resulting in heavy losses for Iran and potentially boosting Trump's support (public opinion in the US favors military action).
3. A Stalemate Where Neither Side Dares to Take the First Step
The situation is like two people locked in a arm-wrestling match: neither has the strength to win, but neither wants to let go. The US cannot quickly resolve the issue with Iran, and Iran does not dare to cross the US's red lines (such as causing significant damage to US forces). Thus, both sides are stuck maintaining the status quo: the US does not escalate the conflict, and Iran avoids making fatal provocations; neither wants to be the first to break the balance.
4. The Midterms as the "Key to Breaking the Stalemate": Change May Come After the Elections, but It's Uncertain
All of Trump's actions are aimed at the midterms—maintaining stability and avoiding disruptions. Once the elections are over, he may take new steps: more stringent sanctions, renewed negotiations, or even a military gamble. However, it is impossible to predict which direction he will take.
5. Trump's "Magical Face-Cycling": From "Epic Anger" to Indifference, Full of Acting
In February, the US and Israel referred to the potential war with Iran as an "epic act of anger," but now that Iran is delaying the announcement of the Oman agreement and Trump shows no sign of anger or frustration, this contrast is clearly a political performance. He knows it's not wise to provoke issues now, so he deliberately appears calm to prevent any unexpected complications that could affect the elections. After all, winning the election is more important to him than anything else.
In Conclusion
The US and Iran are currently in a situation of mutual restraint, both waiting for the midterms as a turning point. After the elections, one of two things will happen: either negotiations will resume or conflict will escalate, leading to a resolution. For now, both sides must pretend to be calm.