Summary of Key Points
This year, the phenomenon of "the first cup of milk tea in autumn" has once again sparked a nationwide consumption boom. However, behind the surge in orders, there have been frequent conflicts between shop employees and delivery riders. The root cause is the mismatch between the store's production capacity, the riders' delivery times, and the platform's order allocation algorithms during periods of high demand. While the increased orders lead to higher sales, milk tea shops often suffer from meager profits, along with hidden losses such as declining product quality and a rise in negative reviews. What's more concerning is that the tea industry has entered an era of "concentrated competition where volumes shrink": leading brands are closing stores and upgrading their supply chains, while smaller ones struggle to survive. The "first cup of milk tea in autumn" has evolved from a marketing initiative into a comprehensive test of a brand's capabilities in supply chain management, operations, and digitalization. In the future, the industry will face even more unpredictable challenges.
Detailed Analysis
1. Why do conflicts arise over a cup of milk tea? Three key factors are out of sync
Netizens joke that "the beginning of autumn is the day for milk tea shops to fight for survival," and the reason is simple: orders surge suddenly, but three critical aspects fail to keep up.
- Stores can't handle the demand: Normally selling a few hundred orders a day, they might suddenly see orders increase by several times or even more. Employees work tirelessly, yet the order processing speed remains insufficient, and the cash registers seem to spew out orders at an unstoppable pace.
- Riders can't wait: Delivery platforms impose strict penalties for delays (such as fee deductions or reduced ratings). Riders waiting for hours without receiving their deliveries become frustrated, as even a minute's delay could result in their orders being timed out.
- Platforms are indifferent: The order allocation system focuses only on the number and distance of orders, not whether the stores can handle them. As a result, stores are overwhelmed, and riders are impatient, leading to verbal and sometimes physical conflicts at the delivery points.
This phenomenon is what's referred to as the "interconnected conflict syndrome" – when the three key components (production capacity, delivery times, and algorithms) are not aligned, nothing functions smoothly.
2. Surging orders seem exciting, but do milk tea shops really make more money?
Many think that increased orders mean higher profits, but in reality, it's more like "a showy facade with hidden losses":
- Meager profits on the surface: For example, a post-00s entrepreneur saw a 316% increase in sales on the day of the start of autumn (reaching 17,000 yuan), but after paying for 10 additional employees and platform fees as well as covering material costs, the profit was only a few thousand more than usual. Each employee worked for 12 hours, earning just over 200 yuan extra, plus dealing with customer complaints and rider demands.
- Hidden losses are even worse: Mistakes are common during peak times. Employees might mix up the sugar content, and delivery riders may take orders without checking, leading to disappointed customers who leave negative reviews. More negative reviews lower a store's rating, which in turn results in fewer regular orders, creating a vicious cycle.
3. "The first cup of milk tea in autumn" has changed: from a marketing stunt to a real test of brand strength
In the past, it was a competition for creative marketing campaigns (such as catchy slogans or partnerships with popular IPs). Now, it's a comprehensive assessment of a brand's capabilities:
- Can the supply chain withstand the pressure? For instance, if Luckin Coffee sells 25 million cups in a day and runs out of ingredients or encounters logistics issues, it could face collapse.
- Is digital scheduling effective? Can the system distribute orders efficiently to prevent certain stores from being overwhelmed?
- Are store operations reliable? Can they maintain consistent product quality under pressure?
- Can they retain customers? Can they convert one-time buyers into regular customers (e.g., by offering discounts via WeChat)?
Brands that pass this test (like Luckin Coffee and Jasmine Milk White) can use the opportunity to grow, while those that fail may be overwhelmed by the surge in orders.
4. How competitive is the tea industry now? Leading brands are shrinking, and smaller ones are struggling even more
The tea industry is no longer in an era of growth; instead, it's experiencing concentrated competition where volumes are decreasing:
- Store closures are on the rise: In the first half of 2026, 43,200 tea shops closed nationwide, with over 110,000 closing in the past year.
- Leading brands are retreating: Brands like NaiXue have closed 152 stores, Mishi Ice City has slowed down on new openings and invested 1.6 billion yuan to upgrade its supply chain, and BaWang Tea Ji has lowered its expansion targets.
- Competition is fierce: Copycat shops open nearby, leading to hidden price wars (e.g., Starbucks offering milk tea for 4 yuan per cup, diluting the brand's value).
- Unpredictable challenges: AI platforms might launch promotional offers, and sudden news events can cause orders to surge and overwhelm stores.
Smaller brands face even greater difficulties due to weaker supply chains and limited funds; a single surge in orders could be fatal for them.
5. How can milk tea shops survive? Building resilience is key
There's a saying in the food industry: "Train during times of peace, and you'll be prepared for times of chaos." To cope with future challenges, shops need to focus on the following:
- Strengthening supply chain resilience: Investing in better supply chains ensures that materials are available and deliveries are timely during peak periods.
- Standardizing store operations: Training employees to process orders accurately even under pressure reduces mistakes.
- Building customer loyalty: Adding customers to WeChat or social media groups and offering benefits can encourage repeat business.
- Improving employee management: Providing training to help employees handle high-pressure situations and reduce conflicts with riders.
Only by building a strong foundation can shops withstand future challenges.
Conclusion
"The first cup of milk tea in autumn" is no longer just a romantic marketing gimmick; it serves as a mirror reflecting the intense competition and weaknesses within the tea industry. It reminds practitioners that only through genuine strength in supply chain management, operations, and customer retention can they survive in an increasingly competitive market.
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