Summary of Key Points
This year, the enthusiasm for the "first cup of milk tea in autumn" remains, but there are significant changes compared to last year: platform subsidies have shifted from reckless spending (such as offering free purchases) to more strategic approaches. Merchants are better prepared for surge orders, yet they still face capacity constraints. The number of deliveries delayed due to insufficient production has decreased, but the pressure on delivery services hasn't eased. Consumer interest has become more varied, and the industry is moving away from price wars towards competition based on efficiency, customer experience, and brand loyalty, gradually eliminating the bubble of low prices and establishing a healthier market order.
1. Platform Subsidies Cool Down: Moving from Free Milk Tea to High Average Order Values
During last year's summer, platforms offered milk tea for just a few yuan or even for free in the competition for外卖 orders. This year, regulatory authorities have curbed this vicious price war, and platforms are now more cautious with their subsidies:
- Increased Subsidy Thresholds: Meituan offers a 9.9 yuan voucher that can be used on a variety of drinks, as well as a discount coupon for purchases over 18 yuan (not a direct free offer); Taobao's flash sales start from 1.9 yuan, and there are no purchase restrictions; JD.com's delivery services offer discounts starting at 6.18 yuan, with almost no more free offers.
- New Players Entering the Game: Douyin's subsidiary, DouShengSheng, is participating for the first time, offering competitive prices after subsidies.
- High Average Order Values Become a New Focus: Starbucks, which was traditionally more reserved in its pricing, has lowered its prices this year—Taobao flash sales offer discounts of up to 50%, and Meituan's vouchers are worth 12.9 yuan (the same as Luckin's). Platforms are now targeting premium milk tea customers rather than just attracting new users with low prices.
- Increase in Taobao Orders: After last year's subsidies, some brands have seen a significant shift in orders between platforms; for example, Xicha had 276 orders on Meituan compared to 272 on Taobao, indicating clear user diversion.
2. Merchants: Better Prepared, but Still Confronted by Capacity Limits
Last year, stores were in chaos during surge orders (riders rushed to the counter to pack orders themselves). This year, merchants have become more strategic:
- Advanced Planning: Jinan's BaWang ChaJi has prepared 80% more ingredients and hired extra staff; many stores have recruited part-time workers for packaging; FengKe Wanda stores have tripled their staffing and extended operating hours.
- Process Optimization: Special personnel are assigned to verify and deliver orders to prevent mistakes. Barriers have been added between riders and staff to avoid conflicts.
- Still Insufficient Capacity: Milk tea must be made on the spot, so surge orders still result in delays. For instance, Luckin sold 25 million cups (a record), Mixue BingCheng sold 75 million cups, and Jasmine Milk White generated 73 million yuan in sales—although the volume is impressive, the time required to produce each cup remains a major issue.
3. Riders: Fewer Delays, but Greater Stress
Riders are less anxious this year (no more loud arguments at the counter), but the pressure has changed:
- Longer Delivery Times: The wait time for individual orders has decreased, but with more orders and longer distances, the total delivery time has increased by 30 minutes per order.
- Experienced Riders Avoiding Milk Tea Orders: Skilled riders are willing to pay an extra 2 yuan to skip milk tea deliveries to save time.
- Strict Site Requirements: Some sites require riders to be online for 10.5 hours and complete at least 35 orders a day, which they have no choice but to accept.
- Unavoidable "Blind Box" Strategy: Riders communicate with customers in advance that they might receive two cups instead of one to reduce waiting issues during peak times.
4. Consumers: Divided Opinions
Consumer attitudes towards the "first cup of milk tea in autumn" have split:
- Indifferent Group: Many people on social media say it's not worth ordering specifically for this day, seeing it as a marketing gimmick.
- Newcomers Enthusiasts: Those attracted by limited-time packaging or seasonal products, such as GuMing's autumn-themed packaging, are driving orders. Mixture White's new orange-flavored product also generated significant demand.
- Average Experience: In the afternoon, many stores are closed, and even available deliveries take an hour longer than usual.
5. The Industry is Eliminating Bubbles: Moving from Price Wars to Profit and Pricing Power
The consequences of last year's price wars are becoming apparent:
- Reduced Merchants' Profits: Platforms charge 23%-25% in commissions, plus marketing and subsidy costs, squeezing merchants' profits. Mixue BingCheng's CEO noted that online orders result in less net income. GuMing's外卖 revenue has decreased from 60% to 50%, as a 3000 yuan takeaway order is less profitable than a 1000 yuan in-store order.
- Brands Seeking Control: This year, many brands are focusing on increasing their profit margins by controlling prices and customer relationships, rather than being driven by platform subsidies or having all user data in the hands of the platforms.
- Healthy Competition: The decline in interest for the "first cup of milk tea" is a positive sign as the industry shifts from a race to the lowest price to a focus on efficiency, customer experience, and brand loyalty. This shift towards more sustainable practices is beneficial for the entire tea industry.
In summary, this year's "first cup of milk tea" is no longer about reckless subsidies but represents a return to rationality in the industry—platforms are no longer spending heavily, merchants are seeking profits, and both riders and consumers are experiencing improved services. This marks a good beginning for the tea drink industry as it eliminates unnecessary costs and strengthens its foundation.