Summary of Key Points
Tongji University has announced the abolition of the lifetime tenure system for all faculty members, including senior professors. This new evaluation process involves a three-year review for pre-tenured positions and a six-year comprehensive assessment followed by a mid-term evaluation every three years. Failure to meet the standards could result in a salary reduction or termination of employment. This move breaks with the previous practice, which only applied to young teachers and mandated their promotion or dismissal. The underlying reason for this change is the reversal of the supply-demand balance for teachers: the number of doctoral graduates is significantly exceeding the number of available positions in universities, and a long-term demographic peak is leading to a decrease in future student enrollment, resulting in an oversupply of teaching staff. Additionally, the landscape of higher education institutions is diversifying, with key universities taking the initiative to reform, while ordinary private colleges are facing severe challenges due to a lack of applicants. In the future, the concept of a "guaranteed job" in academia may become a thing of the past, and the higher education sector could undergo significant restructuring.
Why Is There Such Controversy over Tongji University’s Decision to Abolish the Lifetime Tenure System?
In the past, the "promote or dismiss" policy in universities only applied to young teachers. Senior professors, once granted lifetime tenure, were virtually immune to dismissal, enjoying a stable job security. However, Tongji University is now evaluating all faculty members, including those with permanent positions, which is unprecedented among China’s 985 universities.
The main points of controversy are:
1. Academic achievements are difficult to measure in the short term: Academic research is not like mass production; winning awards such as the Fields Medal (the highest honor in mathematics) or the Nobel Prize takes years, even for the most talented individuals. If evaluations are conducted every 3-6 years, professors may be incentivized to publish quick, short-term papers rather than engage in long-term, riskier projects, potentially turning academia into a "paper factory."
2. Why aren’t administrative staff also evaluated? There is concern that if only teachers are held accountable for performance, what about the administrators and leaders in universities? After all, the issue of job security affects everyone in the institution.
Is There Really an Overupply of Teachers?
The sudden focus on teacher recruitment by universities is due to a mismatch between the number of graduates and available positions:
- Short-term: A surge in doctoral graduates: Last year, China saw over 100,000 new doctoral graduates, but there were only about 30,000 job opportunities, including in administrative roles. Now, even entry-level positions at third-tier and vocational colleges require a doctoral degree, making competition extremely fierce, especially at top universities like those in the Ivy League.
- Long-term: Demographic trends: The declining birth rate is reducing the number of school-age children. In recent years, the number of primary school teachers has decreased by 198,000, and that of kindergarten teachers by 632,000 (a 20% reduction). The peak in middle school enrollment will occur this year, followed by high schools in 2029, and universities in 2032. As the number of college students decreases, universities will need fewer teachers. Jilin University predicts a surplus of 880,000 teaching staff by 2036-2045.
Key Universities Have Funds for Reform, While Ordinary Colleges Are Struggling
Tongji University’s reform is not due to financial constraints—its education budget for 2026 amounts to 17.1 billion yuan, ranking it among the top ten in the country, even exceeding that of Nanjing University and Wuhan University. This move is part of its strategy to enhance academic competitiveness.
However, ordinary colleges, especially private ones, are facing difficulties:
- Over the past few years, more than a dozen private colleges have closed or restructured.
- This year, over 20 private undergraduate programs in Guangxi received no applications at all, indicating that students and parents no longer see them as viable options.
- In the era of AI, the value of academic degrees is diminishing; employers place more emphasis on practical skills, reducing the attractiveness of less prestigious institutions.
The Future: The End of Guaranteed Jobs in Universities and Major Restructuring
Tongji University’s initiative is just the beginning. Future changes will be even more pronounced:
1. Unstable teaching careers: Both young and senior teachers will need to rely on their abilities; the days of easy promotion after obtaining a professorship are over.
2. Accelerated university consolidation: As the number of college students peaks, competition for enrollment will intensify, leading to the closure or merger of less competitive institutions. Only top-tier universities or those with specialized, applied programs will survive.
3. Potential short-sightedness in academia: If evaluations remain focused on short-term outcomes, professors may prioritize projects that yield quick results, potentially harming long-term fundamental research and groundbreaking innovation.
In summary, the end of the "guaranteed job" in universities is both a consequence of demographic changes and a signal of educational reform. For teachers, this means the need for lifelong learning; for students, it emphasizes the importance of choosing institutions based on quality and uniqueness; for universities, it forces them to innovate or face extinction.
(The translation maintains the original Markdown structure and uses clear, accessible language suitable for financial journalism.)