Summary of Key Points
Recently, major international pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) such as Pfizer, Roche, and Amgen have collectively discontinued several weight loss drug development programs. The reason is not that these drugs are completely ineffective, but rather because the current weight loss market competition has entered a phase where absolute advantages are decisive. Companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have established barriers in terms of efficacy and payment models with drugs such as tirzepatide and semaglutide. Ordinary weight loss drugs, which offer similar effects with no significant differences, struggle to survive in this environment. As a result, these large companies are shifting their resources towards more promising projects with unique strengths—those that are longer-acting, safer, or address new consumer needs. The weight loss market itself is not declining, but the era of mediocre players has come to an end.
Why Are Large Companies Discontinuing Weight Loss Drugs?
On the surface, it seems these drugs are ineffective, but in reality, the competition is too fierce and the market barriers have risen significantly. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have set very high standards for weight loss drugs: tirzepatide can reduce body weight by more than 20%, the oral version of semaglutide can reduce it by 12.4%, and even a triple-target drug can achieve a 28.3% reduction. The market no longer accepts drugs that are only slightly effective; if a company develops a drug that can only reduce weight by 15%, it has no competitive advantage compared to the giants, and doctors and patients will not choose it. Additionally, the research and development costs for these drugs (often exceeding one billion dollars in phase 3 trials) are not proportional to the potential returns, leading companies to cut off less promising projects and focus their resources on more viable options.
What Went Wrong with the Discontinued Drugs?
The discontinued programs did not necessarily fail completely, but they all had critical flaws:
1. Safety Issues: For example, TERN-601 showed good initial results (5% weight loss after 28 days), but 11.9% of patients stopped taking it due to side effects, and there were concerns about liver damage, leading to its termination.
2. Insufficient Efficacy: Pfizer’s PF-07976016 in combination with liraglutide did not outperform either drug on its own, and the different administration methods (oral vs. injectable) were considered too inconvenient for patients.
3. Lack of Differentiation: Amgen’s AMG513 and AMG786 failed to meet expectations based on early data and offered no significant advantages over existing drugs, making further investment a waste.
In short, the current standard for weight loss drugs is either to be significantly better than competitors or to have unique features; otherwise, they are at a disadvantage.
The Remaining Standout Drugs
Large companies have not given up on the weight loss market; they are simply focusing their resources on programs with clear advantages:
- Pfizer’s Berobenatide: Requires only one monthly injection, resulting in a 15.9% weight loss after 32 weeks, comparable to tirzepatide, without any signs of a plateau in effectiveness. Pfizer is also exploring potential combinations with other drugs to target complications such as sleep apnea.
- Roche’s Enicepatide: A dual-target drug (GLP-1 + GIP) that reduces weight by 22.5% after 48 weeks, with similar efficacy to tirzepatide but better safety—only mild gastrointestinal reactions at the highest doses, and there is potential for increased effectiveness with higher dosages.
- Amgen’s MariTide: Requires only four to six injections per year, offering excellent compliance. More importantly, it can be effective for patients who have previously used other GLP-1 drugs without causing additional side effects, which is crucial for capturing existing market share.
Changing Market Dynamics: The Era of Ordinary Players Is Over
The weight loss market is still growing, but the approach has changed:
1. GLP-1 Track饱和: Large companies are moving towards non-GLP-1 class drugs because the GLP-1 field is highly competitive and difficult to penetrate.
2. Opportunities for Domestic Companies: The era of aggressive mergers and acquisitions by large companies is over; only drugs with genuine differentiation will be valuable. Domestic companies entering this market need to ask themselves: Can our drug outperform Eli Lilly’s? Or does it offer unique advantages (such as greater safety or convenience)?
In conclusion, weight loss drugs are no longer a field for everyone; only the most innovative and differentiated products will survive in the future.
Implications for Consumers
If you are interested in weight loss drugs, consider these factors when making choices: Efficacy (how much weight can it reduce?), Convenience (the fewer injections, the better), and Safety (minimal side effects). For investors, avoid companies that follow the crowd; instead, look for those with unique advantages, such as quarterly injections, triple-target drugs, or products targeting specific populations (e.g., type 1 diabetes patients).
In summary, the weight loss market has evolved from a period of rapid growth to one of focused development. Ordinary drugs are being phased out, and only the most advanced products are standing out. This is a natural outcome of the industry’s maturation.
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