Summary of Key Points
After the new housing policy was introduced in Beijing on August 7th (relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing the amount of mortgage loans available through the housing provident fund), there was a surge in interest in the new housing market. Some popular properties saw queues on weekends, with visitation numbers increasing by 50%-60%, but this enthusiasm was mainly concentrated among properties that had recently undergone renovations. The secondary housing market also saw an increase in inquiries and viewings, with homeowners exhibiting mixed attitudes (some raising prices while others were eager to sell at reduced prices). Institutions believe that the new policy will boost sales during the "Golden September and Silver October" period in the short term, but in the long run, market differentiation will become the norm, with core cities seeing recovery while smaller cities continue to work on reducing inventory.
I. What Practical Benefits Does the New Policy Offer to Homebuyers?
The new policy mainly aims to lower the barriers to purchasing property in two areas:
1. Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions: Families without a Beijing household registration can now buy homes within the Fifth Ring Road area if they have contributed to the social security system or paid personal income tax for just one year, rather than two years—this makes it more accessible to people who have recently started working in Beijing.
2. Increase in Mortgage Loan Amounts: Previously, couples could only obtain a mortgage of up to 1.2 million yuan for their first home; now this amount has been doubled to 2.4 million yuan, and with additional incentives, the maximum loan amount can reach 3.4 million yuan. For example, given that the median price of new homes in Beijing is around 4.1 million yuan, the housing provident fund could only cover 27% of this amount before the policy change, but now it can cover 58%, significantly reducing the required down payment (from a potential 3 million yuan to perhaps just 1.7 million yuan).
II. New Housing Market: Popular Properties See Queues, Developers Seize the "Window Period"
The first weekend after the new policy took effect was clearly more active in the new housing market:
- Increased Number of Viewers: Some popular properties, especially those that had recently been renovated (such as those in Tongzhou and Changping), saw long queues. The number of visitors to properties managed by Heshuo increased by 50%-60%, and the visitation rate for the Longfor Guancui project also rose by 37%.
- Slight Increase in Sales: Although there were more viewers, actual sales only increased by 10%-20%. This is mainly because people who previously couldn't afford to buy due to insufficient down payments now have the option of using mortgage loans. For instance, at Longfor Guancui, two customers purchased a four-bedroom apartment for 1.29 million yuan thanks to the new policy.
- Developers Offer Promotions: One property in Changping offered 10 special units with price reductions: three-bedroom apartments were sold from 4.14 million yuan to 3.63 million yuan, and four-bedroom apartments from 6.14 million yuan to 5.38 million yuan, all available for immediate purchase on weekends, in an attempt to capitalize on the increased demand.
- Not All Properties Are Popular: Properties outside the Fifth Ring Road and high-priced luxury homes within the Fifth Ring Road saw little change due to their location or target audience (either a lack of demand from first-time homebuyers or the fact that wealthy buyers are less affected by changes in mortgage loan amounts).
III. Secondary Housing Market: More Viewings, but Mixed Attitudes Among Homeowners
The secondary housing market responded more slowly than the new housing market, but there were still noticeable trends:
- More Active First-Time Homebuyers: The number of inquiries and viewings increased, especially among those with budgets around 3 million yuan, as the new policy provided them with significant financial support.
- Mixed Attitudes of Homeowners: Some homeowners expect prices to rise and raised their listing prices (for example, a property in Chaoyang was listed for 4.56 million yuan but then increased to 4.59 million yuan). Others were eager to sell, with some reducing prices significantly; for instance, a school district property in Xicheng was sold for 3.59 million yuan when it could have been sold for 4.05 million yuan.
- Institutions Are Optimistic about the Secondary Housing Market: Since secondary housing accounts for 85% of transactions in Beijing and the increased mortgage loan amounts can cover most borrowing needs, sales in this market are expected to increase more significantly than in the new housing market.
IV. Future Trends: Short-Term Heat, Long-Term Differentiation, with Core Cities Taking the Lead
The industry has a clear view of the impact of the new policy:
- Short Term: The policy is likely to boost sales during the "Golden September and Silver October" period as people try to take advantage of the benefits.
- Long Term: Market differentiation will become the norm, with core cities (such as Beijing and Shanghai) seeing a gradual recovery in housing prices, while smaller cities will continue to work on reducing inventory.
- Impact on the Nation: As Beijing serves as a benchmark, other core cities may introduce similar policies. However, the era of widespread price increases is over, and housing prices will now be determined by location and demand.
In summary, the new policy aims to make purchasing property more affordable for homebuyers. However, the market will not return to its previous frenzy. Those interested in buying should take advantage of the discounts, but there's no need to rush, as not all properties will appreciate in value due to the ongoing market differentiation.