Summary of Key Points
In 2026, e-commerce professionals are facing an unprecedented “cold winter”: salaries have plummeted (with some receiving only half their previous pay), performance-based bonuses are harder to obtain, working hours have increased (one person is expected to do the work of three), and company control has become stricter. Behind these challenges lie three major pressures: a slowdown in industry growth, the replacement of jobs by AI, and soaring compliance costs. Those considering a career change face barriers both within the industry (internal transfers are difficult) and externally (few successful cases of transitioning to other fields). As a result, most people are left with no choice but to “hold on” for now.
1. Salary Cuts + Increased Workload: Double Strains on E-commerce Employees
Salaries in e-commerce operations have not only decreased but also become more difficult to earn. For example, Xiao Wang, who has been in the industry for ten years, experiences a reduction in salary with each job change; now his compensation is split 60/40 between a fixed portion and a performance-based bonus, which can be deducted at any time. In a company in Hunan, there are seven performance levels, and without achieving 95% of the targets, employees cannot even receive 30% of the bonus.
Worse still, there is a lack of replacement: when colleagues leave, those remaining have to take on more work. For instance, Niu Pai, who works as a distributor in Changsha, used to leave on time, but now often has to work overtime. At a supply chain company in Hangzhou, financial positions require weekend hours for several months straight. Companies are also cutting corners on small things: employees are reminded to eat lunch a few minutes earlier, the standard for afternoon tea has been secretly reduced, and even the money allocated for toilet paper is being cut.
2. Three Major Pressures: Industry Growth Stagnation, AI Competition, and Rising Compliance Costs
The difficulties faced by e-commerce workers are not caused by a single factor but by the combination of three “curse-like” challenges:
1. Stagnating Industry Growth: Since 2023, the e-commerce industry has entered an era of stable demand, with businesses spending more on advertising to attract customers. While sales figures appear impressive, actual profits have decreased (reducing gross merchandise value), putting pressure on employees.
2. AI Taking Jobs: AI has replaced roles such as design (automated proposal generation), customer service (24/7 support), and live streaming (digital humans generating higher ROI than real humans). AI has also simplified operations, such as optimizing advertising strategies and predicting sales for inventory management, leaving fewer tasks for human operators.
3. Rising Compliance Costs: New e-commerce tax regulations took effect in 2026, requiring companies with annual revenues over 5 million yuan to pay 13% in taxes (eliminating the previous 1% discount). Additionally, the implementation of social security contributions based on actual salaries has increased labor costs, forcing companies to cut salaries and other expenses.
3. Divergent Job Roles: Some Are Less Strained, Others Are More Vulnerable
Different positions within the e-commerce chain face varying situations:
- Positions Close to Factories: Those working in areas like new product development (e.g., Niu Pai’s role in the supply chain) can leave on time and have fewer overtime hours.
- Financial, Customer Service, Design Roles: Employees in these fields often work weekends, and some roles (such as customer service and design) are being directly replaced by AI (Xiao Wang’s company now has only one designer left for both online and offline operations).
- Narrow Specialized Areas: E-commerce operations have become highly specialized; for example, within the beauty category, there are distinctions between skincare and makeup products, and within medical aesthetics, between oral and injectable treatments. Transferring to another area within the same industry is almost impossible.
4. The Barrier to Career Change: A “Glass Wall”
E-commerce workers trying to escape their current situation find themselves blocked:
- External Transfers: None of Xiao Wang’s friends who tried to switch careers were successful, describing it as a path with potential but no clear future.
- Internal Transfers: Although there is demand for roles in cross-border e-commerce and AI-related fields, internal transfers are difficult; for example, skills from Tmall’s beauty or maternal and infant product operations are not transferable to other areas.
- Age Factor: The average age of e-commerce operators is 26–28 years old, and less than 12% have made it to management. Experienced workers with higher salaries and more ideas are seen as less valuable due to their age, which is a disadvantage.
In the end, most people choose to “hold on.” Positions that are urgently hiring are likely to be problematic, and moving to another company only means facing similar challenges. With no clear alternatives and unknown risks, frontline e-commerce workers have no choice but to endure the current difficulties.
Conclusion
The “cold winter” for e-commerce professionals in 2026 is a result of the combined pressures of industry cycles, technological changes, and regulatory compliance requirements. For ordinary employees, the options are to adapt to AI tools to improve their skills or try to secure one of the few growing areas (such as cross-border sales or AI-related roles). Otherwise, they will struggle with reduced salaries and increased workloads. This is not only a temporary challenge for the e-commerce industry but also a reflection of the rapid changes in the digital economy.