Summary of Key Points
This article explores the growth experiences of three generations in China (the post-60s and 70s "Old Generation," the post-80s to 95s "Middle Generation," and the post-95s to 2000s "Young Generation") to illustrate the transition from rapid economic growth to slower growth. It also highlights the differences in values and consumption patterns among these generations and predicts the corresponding industry opportunities for the future. The Old Generation enjoyed a period of peace, economic prosperity, and urbanization benefits, with consumption driven by a collective trend. The Middle Generation faced a decline in these benefits and a breakdown of societal consensus, leading to consumption as a means of alleviating anxiety. The Young Generation, while having a better material foundation, faces limited opportunities and seeks immediate gratification through experiences. The article also forecasts future trends such as the aging population (the "Silver Economy"), market-based elderly care services, and the outsourcing of responsibilities.
Detailed Analysis
1. Old Generation: Winners of the Era's Benefits, with Consumption Like "Snatching Tickets"
The Old Generation (born in the 1960s and 70s) was the most fortunate in Chinese history:
- Lack of War and Famine: They were among the first to escape war and hunger, experiencing hardship but never going hungry as children.
- Economic Boom: The reform and opening-up policies (1979) and China's entry into the WTO (2001) led to rapid economic growth; they reached their prime at a time of urbanization (urban population increased from 170 million to 950 million).
- Unified Values: There was a widespread belief that education, joining the state system, and buying a house and getting married would change one's fate. Consumption followed a collective trend—bicycles/sewing machines in the 1970s, televisions/refrigerators in the 1980s, air conditioners/computers in the 1990s, and houses/cars in the new century.
- Enterprise Success: Companies that tapped into consumer trends thrived; for example, Haier became successful by ensuring product quality and expanding service networks, achieving annual revenues of over ten billion within 13 years.
In short, the Old Generation's success came from following the times, with consumption based on what others were buying.
2. Middle Generation: Strugglers in a Transitional Period, with Consumption as a "Sacrifice for Peace of Mind"
The Middle Generation (born in the 1980s to 1995s) faced a challenging period:
- Fewer Benefits and Increased Inequality: The earlier-born could afford to buy houses, while later-born needed multiple sources of income. Job opportunities became more competitive, and the barriers to entering large companies rose.
- Breakdown of Consensus: Economic growth slowed after 2015, shattering the belief that things would get better. Values became more diverse—some started businesses, some pursued government careers, while others chose to "lie flat" (avoiding risk).
- Consumption as a Relief from Anxiety: They spent on beauty salons, gyms, tutoring classes, and knowledge-based services, seeking comfort and certainty. Companies understood this, creating unique experiences for members (e.g., Sam's Club with fewer products and membership fees).
The Middle Generation struggled with the dilemma of having many choices and fearing to make mistakes; their consumption was a way to feel secure.
3. Young Generation: Seekers of Immediate Pleasure, with Consumption Like "Buying Tickets"
The Young Generation (born in the 1990s to 2000s) enjoys material comforts but faces limited opportunities:
- Material Abundance but Limited Options: They grew up in a developed country, and while many have homes, they often live in shared apartments or commute by subway, feeling that life is getting worse.
- Focus on Immediate Happiness: They prefer immediate gratification over long-term goals. Consumption shifted from acquiring possessions to experiencing things—trendy toys (e.g.,泡泡 Mart), cultural tourism (e.g., Henan's "Only Henan" and "Wansui Mountain"), and pets (pet consumption increased by 72% in five years).
- The Second-Hand Economy: Platforms like Xianyu facilitate recycling of items, reducing the cost of enjoyment.
For the Young Generation, spending money is about experiencing pleasure in the present.
4. The Consumption Patterns of Three Generations Reflect China's Economic Transition
The changes in consumption patterns reflect different stages of economic development:
- Old Generation: Rapid growth and urbanization led to uniform consumer demands; companies succeeded by tapping into popular trends.
- Middle Generation: Slowing growth and diverse values meant companies had to address various consumer concerns.
- Young Generation: Faced with competition for existing resources, companies need to create emotional connections with consumers.
The shift from mass consumption to experiential consumption marks a transition from "expansion" to "optimization" of the economy.
5. Industry Opportunities for the Next Decade
The article predicts future trends:
- Silver Economy: Initially, there will be demand for cultural tourism (currently dominated by the 55-60 age group), followed by elderly care and healthcare services.
- Market-Based Elderly Care: Without employer support, people will need to purchase services independently.
- Outsourcing of Responsibilities: Caring for parents, children, and pets will become commercialized services.
- Real Needs of the Next Generation: Growing up in a digital age, they may crave authentic experiences (e.g., offline social interactions and outdoor activities).
This article uses the stories of these three generations to explain China's economic history and future. Each generation has its own challenges and opportunities, and understanding these helps explain why certain businesses succeed while others fail.