Summary of Key Points
Tesla saw revenue growth in the first half of 2026, but its net profit remained unchanged. The company's $1.2 trillion market value is primarily supported by vehicle sales, while its autonomous taxi services and humanoid robots have not generated any actual revenue. Profitability has been affected by declining prices, meager revenue from FSD (Full Self-Driving), and shrinking carbon sales. Additionally, there are clear warning signs of an AI bubble in the U.S., making Tesla the weakest in terms of profitability among the seven major tech companies on the stock market, despite having the highest valuation, which poses significant risks.
I. Tesla's Three Pillars: Only Vehicle Sales Are Real
Of the three business pillars Tesla promotes—vehicle sales, autonomous taxis, and humanoid robots—only vehicle sales are a reliable source of revenue:
- Reluctant Recovery in Vehicle Sales: After reaching a peak of 1.81 million units in 2023, sales declined for two consecutive years. In the first half of 2026, sales amounted to 838,000 units, an increase of about 15% year-on-year. This improvement is mainly due to factors such as higher oil prices caused by conflicts in the Middle East and Iran (making electric vehicles more cost-effective), the popularity of the slightly revised Model Y, and a "5-year zero-interest" promotional offer.
- The Other Two Pillars Are Still Unrealized: There are only a few dozen autonomous taxis in testing (with only 20 without safety drivers), and commercial operation permits are still a long way off. The production of humanoid robots has failed to meet targets for several years, and Tesla has faced regulatory investigations from the SEC due to Musk's exaggerated claims. Currently, the automotive business is the only source of revenue, accounting for 72.6% of total sales.
II. Why Didn't Net Profit Increase?
The lack of net profit growth in the first half of 2026 can be attributed to three main pressures:
- Declining Vehicle Prices and Shrinking Gross Profits: The price of a Tesla vehicle dropped from $51,000 in 2022 to $40,000 in 2025, resulting in a gross profit reduction from $13,000 to $5,300. This represents a 7.2% decrease compared to比亚迪's 20.5%. In 2025, Tesla's gross profit from vehicle sales was only $8.6 billion, which is 46% of比亚迪's.
- FSD as a Disappointing Revenue Source: FSD, the highly anticipated autonomous driving software, has generated less than 2% of total sales revenue in recent years. In the first half of 2026, it contributed only $130 million, not even covering the annual research and development costs of around $1.6 billion. Moreover, Tesla's FSD is at the L2 level (requiring human supervision), which is far inferior to比亚迪's near-L3 and Waymo's L4 technology.
- Fading Carbon Sales: Tesla once earned a significant portion of its revenue from selling carbon emission credits (183% in 2023). However, due to changes in U.S. policy (abolishing penalties for fuel-powered vehicles and repealing California's zero-emission requirements), carbon sales decreased by 67% year-on-year and may disappear completely in 2027.
III. Want to Be the "Apple of the Automotive Industry?" FSD Falls Short Compared to Apple
Tesla has aimed to follow Apple's model of selling hardware (vehicles) while generating revenue through software (FSD). However, the reality is far from ideal:
- Apple's Software Revenue: In Q2 2026, Apple's software services generated $30.7 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of its total hardware sales. In contrast, Tesla's FSD revenue accounted for less than 1.2% of vehicle sales.
- FSD's Cost-Defeating Performance: FSD revenues in 2025 were only $960 million, while the annual R&D costs for autonomous driving amounted to $1.6 billion, meaning Tesla was actually losing money on this product. After transitioning from a one-time purchase model to a subscription-based service in 2026, revenue did not increase, shattering Tesla's "Apple-like" dreams.
IV. Is the U.S. AI Bubble About to Burst? Tesla Is the Most Vulnerable among the Seven Giants
There are increasing signs of an AI bubble in the U.S., and Tesla is the most vulnerable of the seven major tech companies (NVIDIA, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla):
- Red Lights on All Warning Indicators: The Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio (a valuation metric) exceeds 41 times (historically, ratios above 30 indicate a potential bubble burst), the Buffett Index (market value/GDP) is at 210% (dangerous when it exceeds 160%), and the AI sector accounts for 35% of the total market value (a historically high proportion).
- Tesla as a Drag on the Group: In Q2 2026, Tesla's net profit was only $1.1 billion, accounting for 0.6% of the total profits of these seven companies, yet its market value accounted for 5.4%. Its P/E ratio is a staggering 334 times, compared to an average of 26 for the other giants. If the AI bubble bursts, Tesla's overvalued stock price could plummet significantly.
Conclusion
Tesla's current situation is akin to "walking on one leg": it relies on vehicle sales to maintain its high market value, but facing challenges such as declining prices and thinning profits. Its other businesses (autonomous taxis and robots) are far from becoming profitable, and carbon sales are on the decline. Additionally, Tesla is positioned at the forefront of the AI bubble. For ordinary investors, the risks associated with Tesla outweigh any potential opportunities.
(The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)