Summary of Key Points
The decline in popularity of "Himetai:悟空" has led to a 7% decrease in revenue for the Chinese console gaming market in the first half of this year, with no other blockbuster game emerging to take its place. However, the overall Chinese gaming market (including mobile games and international business) has performed well, with steady growth in mobile gaming and a 30% increase in overseas revenue. "Himetai" has inspired many developers to enter the single-player game sector, but replicating its success is extremely challenging—requiring investments of around 200-300 million yuan and development cycles that span several years. It will be difficult to produce another "Himetai" in the short term. Nevertheless, the Chinese gaming industry has an advantage in terms of low labor costs, which could potentially lead to more high-quality titles in the long run.
I. Console Gaming Market Slumps: No Successor to Himetai
Revenue from console games in China in the first half of this year was 961 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The reason is simple: the popularity of "Himetai," which became a sensation in 2024, has faded, and no single-player game has managed to reach its level in the past two years.
How popular was "Himetai?" It cost 300 million yuan to develop, sold nearly 30 million copies globally, generated approximately 9 billion yuan in revenue, and made profits of over 4 billion yuan (more than many films). However, its peak has passed, and although it is still on sale at discounted prices, its ability to drive the market is much weaker now.
The recently released "Mingmu: Yuanxu Zhiyu" has sold only 2 million copies (less than one-tenth of "Himetai's sales), and its development team has already disbanded. As a result, the console gaming market has returned to a quiet state without any blockbuster games to sustain it.
II. Overall Gaming Market Prospers: Mobile Games Lead the Way, Overseas Business Booms
In contrast to the sluggish console market, the Chinese gaming industry as a whole grew by 12% in the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 188.4 billion yuan. This growth is driven by two main factors:
1. Stable Mobile Gaming: Domestic mobile game revenue was 163.3 billion yuan, an increase of 16%, serving as a stabilizing force for the entire industry.
2. Overseas Business Boom: Overseas revenue amounted to 12.3 billion US dollars, a 30% increase. In the past, Chinese games initially targeted Southeast Asia for international expansion; now they are also making inroads into Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea (these three markets account for 54% of overseas revenue). For example, the CEO of Peixing Interactive stated that Chinese companies have mastered the skills needed to produce top-tier games in these regions and can replicate this success.
More importantly, AI is beginning to play a significant role, assisting with game design, art, and customer service, accelerating innovation among gaming companies.
III. The "Butterfly Effect" of Himetai: More People Want to Make Single-Player Games, but the Bar is High
The success of "Himetai" has given many people hope for single-player games:
- Investment and Developer Inflow: Previously, few were willing to invest in single-player games, but now more developers are entering the field. For instance, Pu Guannan, from Xingchen Wushuang, was inspired by "Himetai" and developed "Shikong Diyao."
- New Players Attracted: Many mobile game players have been drawn to single-player games, bringing the total number of Chinese single-player gamers to around 8 million.
However, creating successful single-player games is not easy:
- High Investment Bar: Pu Guannan mentioned that investments below 30 million yuan are unlikely to be profitable (due to insufficient visual quality), while reasonable investments of 200-300 million yuan are required, along with the right direction and execution, to achieve a 2-3 times return on investment.
- Less Intense Competition: Compared to the highly competitive mobile gaming market, the success rate for console games is relatively higher.
IV. When Will the Next "Himetai" Appear? Difficult in the Short Term, but Possible in the Long Run
Many ask when another "Himetai" will emerge. The answer is that it will be difficult in the short term, but there is hope for the long run.
Reasons for the Short-term Difficulty:
1. Long Development Cycles: Games like "Shikong Diyao" may not be released until 2029, and "Himetai" itself took years to develop.
2. High Creative Barriers: Liu Yang, the creator of "Gushen," described "Himetai" as a benchmark that cannot be easily surpassed by following conventional methods.
3. Lack of Core Creativity: Although China has many talented developers (many global hits feature Chinese contributors), core IPs and creativity often lie with foreign companies, leaving Chinese studios in a position similar to being "Foxconn of the gaming industry"—focused on production rather than innovation.
Reasons for Long-term Hope:
- Low Labor Costs: China's labor costs are one-third to one-fifth of those in other countries, providing a foundation for long-term development.
- Technological and Aesthetic Advancements: Advances in AI and production capabilities will lead to more high-quality games.
- Potential of Traditional Cultural IPs: "Himetai" utilized the symbol of Goku; in the future, more games may draw inspiration from traditional Chinese culture.
Pu Guannan used an analogy: Just as the second major science fiction project emerged more than 10 years after "Star Wars," the gaming industry also needs patience.
V. Conclusion: Himetai Is a Seed; Patience Is Key
"Himetai" is not an accident; it represents a seed that has shown the potential of Chinese single-player games, attracting investment, talent, and players. Although the console market is currently facing challenges, the overall gaming industry is on the rise, especially in the areas of international expansion and mobile games. Creating another "Himetai" will require time, money, talent, and creativity. It may not happen overnight, but the future looks promising.