Summary of Key Points
The film "Welcome to Long Restaurant" has achieved impressive box office results since its release (over 260 million yuan in two days, with predictions of up to 3 billion yuan), but its success has not been able to reverse the overall downturn in the movie market. The first half of this year's summer season was particularly sluggish, with total box office revenue falling by more than 40% compared to last year (returning to levels seen in 2022). The number of viewers per film also decreased significantly (an average of only 5.7 people per screening), and the proportion of films that were withdrawn from theaters rose sharply from 8% in 2023 to 26%. The industry's reliance on a single hit film reflects deeper issues: a decline in观众 interest in going to the cinema and a scarcity of high-quality content. A market revival truly requires more excellent films that will motivate viewers to spend money.
1. Why Could "Long Restaurant" Become a "Dark Horse?"
The success of this film is not accidental:
- Word-of-mouth from preview screenings: The percentage of preview screenings increased from 14.5% to 18.1%, and the box office revenue from these screenings accounted for over 40%, indicating that viewers were willing to recommend the film.
- A star-studded creative team: Shen Teng has a cumulative box office of 41.5 billion yuan and brings his own fan base; director Wen Muye, known for his realistic films like "Dying to Survive," has a solid reputation.
- An innovative story: The combination of war and kitchen settings resonates with audiences, with the concept of "eating amidst the chaos" being compared to the domestic version of "Saving Private Ryan."
- Healthy box office trend: Unlike many films that peak on their debut, "Long Restaurant" may continue to perform well based on word-of-mouth (similar to last year's "Nanjing Photo Studio," which exceeded 100 million yuan in its first six days before reaching its peak on the second weekend).
2. The Summer Season Is Only a "Local Heat" – Not a Nationwide Boom
The popularity of this summer season is somewhat of a latecomer:
- A cold start: By July 5th, the total box office for the first 35 days was only 2 billion yuan, averaging less than 60 million yuan per day.
- A few films are driving the market: The release of "Kung Fu Women's Football" and "The Eight Immortals" helped boost the overall box office, but "Kung Fu Women's Football" saw a sharp decline in popularity (reaching 200 million yuan on its first weekend and then halving to 100 million yuan two days later, with a豆瓣 rating of 6.4).
- Whether it can catch up with last year is uncertain: The current total summer season box office of 8.6 billion yuan is still 34 billion yuan short of last year's full-season figure of 12 billion yuan. It will be challenging to replicate the "long-tail effect" seen in mid-to-late August last year within the remaining 20 days.
3. The Movie Market Was "Cold to the Bone" in the First Half of the Year
The data speaks for itself:
- Sharp decline in box office: Total box office revenue for the first half of the year was 17.3 billion yuan, a 40% decrease from last year, returning to levels seen during the pandemic (2022).
- Dramatic drop in viewership: Only 421 million films were shown in the first half of the year, resulting in an average of 5.7 people per screening—barely enough to fill a single row in a theater.
- Theaters are losing money: The number of screenings during the Dragon Boat Festival season reached a record (1.44 million), but box office revenue decreased by 13%. Although ticket prices were lowered (an average of 36.3 yuan, the lowest in four years) to attract more viewers, the increase in attendance was only 8%, indicating that price cuts are not enough to boost business.
4. The Wave of Film Withdrawals: Small and Medium-sized Films Are Struggling
The proportion of films withdrawn from theaters this year is 26%, and the reasons are practical:
- Overcrowded schedules: Everyone is competing for the peak periods such as Spring Festival, summer, and National Day, with major blockbusters taking up most of the screening slots, leaving little space for smaller films.
- Heartbreaking examples: Films like "The First Part of the Three Kingdoms: The Battle for Luoyang" (starring the same cast as "Chang'an's Thirty Thousand Miles," with a豆瓣 rating of 8.1) had only 15.6% of screenings on its first day and was subsequently withdrawn; "Shining Stars" (starring Huang Bo and Wu Lei) was withdrawn 48 hours after release, failing to recoup its production costs of 400 million yuan.
- A vicious cycle: Few films that are withdrawn later on become hits, leading to even more films being hesitant to release, further chilling the market.
5. The Key to a Market Revival: Audiences Need a Reason to Go to the Cinema
The success of "Long Restaurant" alone is not enough to revive the market:
- Audiences are not rejecting movies: They simply lack compelling content that motivates them to go to the theater. In the first half of this year, only three films exceeded 200 million yuan in box office, and there were almost no mid-sized hits.
- The IP boom is fading: Films like "Flying Life 3" relied on established IPs for success but lacked creative innovation. Low-budget films like "A Letter to Grandma" became hits due to word-of-mouth, but such instances are rare.
- What lies ahead? The National Day and Spring Festival seasons need to offer truly original and compelling content that makes viewers feel the value of spending a few dozen yuan for two hours in theaters. After all, audiences never reject good movies; they just need a reason to do so.
(End of translation)