Summary of Key Points
This article compares the humanoid robot industries in China and Japan: Japan was once the pioneer in this field (defining it half a century ago), but has fallen into silence due to long-standing commercialization issues. Today, China is leading the way with the help of large AI models and new applications (entertainment performances, data collection), while Japan is trying to find opportunities for revival by studying Chinese robots and shifting towards a focus on specific use cases (as opposed to the universal robots pursued by China and the US). Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and the ultimate winner is still undecided.
Detailed Analysis
1. Why Can't Japan Keep Up with China, Despite Being a Pioneer?
Japan was once the absolute leader in humanoid robotics: WABOT-1, developed by Waseda University in the 1970s, was the first modern humanoid robot. Honda's ASIMO could play soccer and walk stairs, and Sony's QRIO was flexible and user-friendly—these achievements amazed the world. However, Japan always believed that the industry would naturally thrive once the technology was matured, without addressing the question of how companies could make money and survive.
China's approach is completely different: they first sell robots to markets (such as entertainment performances and research institutions), use user data to train AI models, and then use those models to upgrade the robots, creating a cycle of “selling products → generating data → upgrading products.” Japan lacks this environment; there are not enough audiences for entertainment performances, and the number of data collection centers is far fewer than in China (China has 90), resulting in robots remaining mainly in laboratories and functioning as large toys.
2. How Did Chinese Robots Suddenly Become Popular? Finding Profitable Use Cases Is Key
China's success lies in finding ways to monetize robots:
- AI Model Support: AI models have enabled robots to go from simply displaying capabilities to making autonomous decisions (e.g., the robot that danced at the Spring Festival Gala).
- Entertainment Performance Market Growth: This segment will account for 36.8% of market demand by 2025, with robot leasing becoming a new business model.
- Data-Driven Profit Cycle: Companies sell robots to data collection centers, which use them to collect data that are then used to upgrade the robots. For example, Ubot signed six large contracts with data collection centers in three months, and Yushu Technology generated 1.7 billion yuan in revenue with a 60% margin by selling robots to universities and research institutions. Although they haven’t entered factories or households yet, they have at least managed to survive financially.
3. Why Can't Japanese Bionic Robots Sell Well?
Japan started early with bionic robots (e.g., ERICA in 2019, touted as the “most beautiful robot”), but has failed to penetrate the consumer market:
- High Prices: Customized robots cost at least 10 million yen (about 630,000 RMB), out of reach for most people.
- Lack of Interest Among Otaku: Japanese otakus prefer virtual entertainment (anime, idols, VTube); the otaku economy grew by 7.23% in 2025, with the idol industry growing by 23.7%. They prefer to follow their favorite stars and play games rather than buy robots for companionship.
- Furry Robots Are More Popular: Furry robots like Lovot have sold 15,000 units, making them much more popular than humanoid robots.
4. Japan Doesn't Follow the “Universal Robot” Trend; Instead, It Focuses on Specialized Robots
While China and the US focus on universal robots (robots that can do everything), Japan has chosen a different path: specializing in robots for specific use cases. Examples include:
- Kawasaki's Kaleido robot, designed to clear debris and rescue victims after disasters; Waseda's AIREC nursing robot, which helps the elderly turn over and fold clothes, targeting Japan’s aging population.
Japan believes that focusing on a specific task is more practical than trying to create a “universal” robot, as demand for such robots has not yet emerged.
5. Who Will Win in the Long Run? The Battle Between Universal and Specialized Robots Is Still Ongoing
It’s too early to determine a winner:
- China’s Universal Robot Approach: The concept is promising, but there is still a lack of strong demand (Yushu’s robots are mainly sold to research institutions, not factories or households); it’s more about creating a story for the capital market.
- Japan’s Specialized Robot Approach: More practical, but Japan needs to improve its AI and chip technology (the government has invested 380 billion yen in AI infrastructure and supports the Rapidus chip project).
The ultimate winner will be the approach that meets real user needs—after all, robots are meant to make money, not just to be displayed.
In essence, this article argues that the competition in humanoid robotics has shifted from a focus on technology to a combination of use cases and commercial viability. China is currently ahead, but Japan is not completely outclassed. The key to success will be which approach can truly integrate robots into people’s lives.