Summary of Key Points
This summer, extreme heatwaves (a phenomenon known as a "heat dome") occurred in many parts of the world, compounded by the increasingly strong El Niño phenomenon (which has a over 90% chance of developing into an intense event and could persist until early 2027). This has had a direct impact on agricultural production, leading to global food prices reaching their highest levels in three years. Major crops such as wheat, sugar, and vegetable oils have seen price increases due to heat, drought, and geopolitical conflicts. The heat not only reduces crop yields but also exacerbates issues like water scarcity and pest infestations, reshaping the agricultural production system. Low-income countries and small farmers are the most affected, facing severe challenges to food security. Solutions require technological innovation, early warning systems, and international cooperation.
1. This Year’s Heatwave is “Epic,” and El Niño Will Make Things Worse
This summer’s heatwave is nothing short of extraordinary—temperatures in Europe, Asia, and the United States broke records, with Western Europe experiencing an average surface temperature 2.79°C higher than in the same period over the past 30 years. Japan and South Korea also experienced record-high temperatures last week. Even worse, global ocean surface temperatures have risen, with approximately 82% of the oceans experiencing heatwaves in July.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that this is just the beginning, as El Niño is intensifying. El Niño is a phenomenon where Pacific Ocean water temperatures rise abnormally, disrupting global precipitation and temperature patterns. The WMO predicts that it will strengthen rapidly in the coming months and may even become an “intense event” (with the Niño 3.4 sea temperature index expected to reach 2.9°C, which qualifies as intense). This means that extreme weather events will become more frequent in the years to come, and the troubles for agricultural production are far from over.
2. Food Prices Reach Three-Year Highs: What’s Increasing in Price?
The FAO Food Price Index reached 131.1 points in August, the highest since January 2023, a 0.6% increase from June and a 1% increase from the same period last year. The main drivers of price increases are:
- Cereals: Up 3.4%. Wheat prices have soared due to disruptions in exports from the Black Sea (geopolitical conflicts) and reduced yields in major producing regions; drought in the United States has pushed up corn prices; rice prices have remained relatively stable for now.
- Sugar: Up 5.6%. The European Union is concerned about reduced production due to heat and drought, and El Niño may affect sugar-producing countries in Asia. Brazil has increased the percentage of ethanol in gasoline, increasing demand for sugar as a fuel source.
- Vegetable Oils: Up 2% (the highest level since June 2022). Increased demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and rising crude oil prices have driven up palm oil prices; soybean oil prices in the United States have increased due to higher feed demands and imports; sunflower and canola oils have seen slight declines.
Although meat and dairy prices have decreased, they cannot offset the increases in these three categories, resulting in an overall rise in food prices.
3. How Does Heat Damage Crops?
The impact of heat on agriculture is twofold:
1. Direct Yield Reduction: Most staple crops (such as wheat, rice, and corn) experience reduced photosynthesis at temperatures above 30°C, leading to decreased yields. Cool-loving crops like potatoes and barley are even more sensitive, with poor growth occurring at temperatures above 25°C. Research in the journal Nature suggests that if global warming exceeds 2°C, the yields of six major crops (corn, sorghum, millet, rice, cassava, wheat) could decrease by nearly a quarter.
2. Risk Amplifier: Heat not only directly damages crops but also exacerbates other problems, such as drought, which leads to water scarcity and soil degradation, making pests and diseases more prevalent. These factors combined make agricultural production even more vulnerable.
The European Central Bank has also noted that heat and drought affect not only the current season’s crops but also increase logistics costs. For example, river levels in the Rhine and Danube have reached record lows, hindering shipping and raising transportation costs for food, which in turn contribute to higher food prices.
4. Who Is Most Affected? Low-Income Countries and Small Farmers Suffer the Most
Extreme weather, rising food prices, and geopolitical conflicts make life harder for low-income countries that rely on imported food:
- They are already dependent on food imports, and now the cost of importing has increased.
- Small farmers are particularly vulnerable; they lack the funds to purchase drought-resistant seeds and irrigation equipment, and a heatwave or drought could result in total crop losses. Ni Hua from the International Fund for Agricultural Development emphasizes that small farmers cultivate large areas of land but have limited resources and bear the brunt of these challenges.
The food security systems in these countries are already under significant pressure. If El Niño continues, more people may face hunger.
5. How to Respond?
The FAO and WMO recommend several approaches:
- Technical Adjustments: Develop heat-resistant crop varieties, change planting times to avoid peak heat periods, and adjust farming practices (e.g., using mulch to retain moisture).
- Early Warning Systems: Provide farmers with advance information about upcoming heatwaves so they can prepare (e.g., by watering crops in advance or applying heat-resistant treatments).
- Financial and Social Support: Offer loans and insurance to small farmers to protect them from poor harvests.
- International Cooperation: Since extreme weather is a global issue, countries need to work together—sharing climate data, assisting low-income countries in building drought-resistant infrastructure, and establishing mechanisms for sharing agricultural risks.
In conclusion, this year’s extreme heat and El Niño are not isolated incidents but inevitable consequences of climate change. They have already affected food prices and will continue to challenge global food security. Addressing this issue requires a comprehensive approach that includes technology, policy, and international cooperation.