Summary of Key Points
If Anthropic goes public with an IPO worth $2 trillion, its sky-high valuation is not based on its current performance but rather on a series of assumptions that are, for now, merely believed to be true: AI must rapidly become the core of the economy; a few leading companies will be able to establish barriers to entry; the cost of computing power will not erode profits; and in the face of geopolitical competition, the growth of AI will outweigh risks. Essentially, this is investors betting on Anthropic gaining strategic dominance in AI, akin to buying a “call option” (a bet on the future rather than the present). However, there are numerous challenges lurking behind this: the invalidity of price-to-sales ratios, potential technological risks, and regulatory dilemmas. This IPO is not just about cashing out; it represents the market’s first attempt to assign a value to the inherent contradictions of cutting-edge AI.
The Four Premises Underlying the Sky-High Valuation
For the $2 trillion valuation to be justified, investors need to believe in four things:
1. AI as an Economic Necessity: AI must become as ubiquitous as electricity or the internet, penetrating all industries and becoming something indispensable.
2. Anthropic’s Ability to Monopolize: A few leading large-scale AI companies (such as Anthropic and OpenAI) will be able to create barriers to entry, preventing others from competing for the market.
3. Computing Power Costs Not Eating into Profits: The training of AI requires massive computing resources (e.g., buying GPUs, renting servers), but these costs should not consume all the profits generated.
4. Geopolitical Risks Not Hindering Growth: Despite intense competition between countries like China and the United States, political or technological controls will not disrupt the development of AI.
Without any one of these assumptions holding true, the valuation would be as fragile as a castle in the air. Hence, the media refers to these premises as being “believed to be true for now.”
This Is Not About Buying a Company, but Buying a “Lotto Ticket to Become the AI Leader”
Why are investors willing to bet so heavily? Because what they are purchasing is not Anthropic’s current business but a “call option.” A call option, in simple terms, is a bet on the future. You don’t need to worry about whether the company is making profits now; you just need to bet that it will achieve something significant in the future (e.g., becoming the dominant force in the AI industry). If this happens, you could make a huge profit.
In the case of Anthropic, investors are betting on its potential to control the strategic position of cutting-edge AI—where all companies use its models, making it the “infrastructure” of the AI sector. At that point, its value would far exceed $2 trillion.
Why Are Price-to-Sales Ratios Ineffective?
The media mentions a price-to-sales ratio of 30 times (market value is 30 times revenue), but this method may not be accurate for the AI industry:
1. Discontinuity in the AI Industry: Revenue in traditional tech companies tends to grow steadily, but AI is different. Open-source models (free or low-cost) can make basic AI services extremely affordable, leading customers to choose cheaper alternatives rather than Anthropic’s more expensive models.
2. Technological Leadership Does Not Equal Pricing Power: Being more advanced does not necessarily mean higher pricing power. For example, improving the quality of AI responses by 10% may not result in a 50% increase in customer willingness to pay.
The More Advanced the Technology, the Greater the Risks?
The more powerful Anthropic’s technology (e.g., its ability to perform complex tasks like coding or conducting financial transactions), the more likely problems are to arise:
1. Security Risks: While minor errors by ordinary AI systems may not be a big deal, advanced AI could lead to serious issues such as cyberattacks or illegal transactions, for which the company would bear significant responsibility.
2. Internal Conflicts: Leading AI companies spend heavily on testing model security, but this is more than just a technical issue. Integrating “disruptive and uncontrollable” AI into a traditional corporate structure inevitably leads to conflicts (e.g., debates between security and business teams about whether safety or profit should take precedence).
The Regulatory Dilemma: Higher Valuations Mean Stricter Regulations?
If AI truly becomes the foundational infrastructure of the economy, as investors hope, governments will not allow private companies to operate unregulated:
- Higher Valuations Lead to Stricter Regulation: The more important AI is deemed (as evidenced by the $2 trillion valuation), the more governments will want to ensure it’s not controlled by private entities, leading to stricter regulations (e.g., classified control, sovereign oversight).
- The Paradox of Capital Circulation: As capital flows into AI, driving up computing power and technological advancement, revenue grows, attracting even more capital. This cycle raises the strategic importance of AI and increases regulatory pressure.
No one knows yet whether regulation will stifle AI’s development or if the AI industry will break through these barriers. However, Anthropic’s IPO represents the market’s first attempt to assign a value to this regulatory dilemma.
In Conclusion
Anthropoc’s $2 trillion valuation is essentially a huge gamble: betting that AI can overcome all the assumptions and become the “king of AI” in the future. Every aspect of this bet is accompanied by risks, and it depends on whether investors are willing to accept these assumptions for now.