Summary of Key Points
“The goal of reducing costs to 20,000 yuan per kilogram” is a frequently mentioned target in the field of commercial rockets in China. However, behind this figure lie many easily overlooked premises and differences in measurement units: it could represent the future cost target for companies or the service price perceived by customers. The unit “kilogram” can refer either to the rocket’s maximum payload capacity or the actual weight of the load carried. Although reuse can indeed reduce costs, it’s not as simple as dividing the total cost by the number of reuses. Currently, the real cost of commercial launches in China ranges from 50,000 to 100,000 yuan per kilogram, so “20,000 yuan” is more of a vision for the future, based on mass production, high payload rates, or multiple reuses, rather than a current market reality.
1. Don’t Mix Up! Costs and Prices Are Two Different Things
Many people assume that “20,000 yuan” refers to the direct service price they can pay, but in reality, the “costs” mentioned by companies are not the same as the “prices” paid by customers:
- Costs are the expenses incurred by the rocket company: materials for building the rocket, engines, workers’ salaries, transportation, testing, launch site fees, and even depreciation of facilities (the fixed cost per launch can vary significantly depending on whether the rocket is used 3 or 30 times a year).
- Prices are what customers have to pay. Companies may lower prices to secure their first client, or they might increase them due to special orbits or complex missions. The base quote often doesn’t include additional services such as insurance, satellite customization, or orbit adjustment.
For example, if you run a bubble tea shop, your costs include tea, milk, and rent, while the price is what customers pay for a cup of tea. Reducing costs to 5 yuan per cup doesn’t mean you’ll sell it for that amount (you still need to make a profit); selling it for 5 yuan doesn’t necessarily mean the cost is actually 5 yuan (you might be losing money temporarily to attract customers). The same applies to rockets: a cost of 20,000 yuan doesn’t mean customers can buy the service for that price, and a quoted price of 20,000 yuan doesn’t mean the company won’t incur losses.
2. The Trick with “Kilograms”: Maximum Payload Capacity vs. Actual Load
The unit “kilogram” in the “20,000 yuan per kilogram” figure hides a common misconception: is it referring to the rocket’s maximum payload capacity or the actual load carried?
- For instance, if a rocket costs 200 million yuan and can carry up to 20 tons (20,000 kilograms), the theoretical cost per kilogram would be 10,000 yuan. But if only 5 tons are carried, the actual cost per kilogram rises to 40,000 yuan.
- Customers don’t buy “just any amount of payload”; factors like the orbit (different costs for low Earth and geosynchronous orbits), launch windows (more expensive launches at specific times), and satellite size (volume restrictions are more critical than weight) need to be considered. For example, the Falcon 9’s cost per kilogram calculated based on its maximum payload capacity is 2,720 US dollars, but the actual price for small satellite customers using shared launches is 7,000 US dollars per kilogram—there’s a big difference between booking a whole taxi and carpooling.
Domestic data supports this: Chang Guang Satellite reported that launch costs ranged from 59,400 to 150,000 yuan per kilogram between 2020 and 2023, with no uniform price per kilogram.
3. Current Real Prices: Much Higher Than 20,000 Yuan
“20,000 yuan” sounds attractive, but the actual cost of commercial launches in China is much higher:
- Based on public data, typical quotes and customer expenditures range from 50,000 to 100,000 yuan per kilogram. Many liquid-fuel rockets are still in their initial stages, with underutilized production lines and launch facilities, so costs are not yet reduced significantly.
- A common misconception is that China’s strong supply chain allows it to catch up with Falcon 9 without the need for reusability. For example, the Lijian-2 rocket claims a cost of 30,000 yuan per kilogram when not reused, which seems similar to Falcon 9’s 5,000 US dollars (about 36,000 yuan), but the calculation methods are unclear: is the cost based on maximum payload capacity or actual load? What costs are included in that figure? Moreover, without reuse, the entire first-stage rocket must be rebuilt after each launch, regardless of the efficiency of the supply chain.
4. Reuse Doesn’t Reduce Costs So Simply
Reusing rockets can lower costs, but it’s not as straightforward as dividing the total cost by the number of reuses:
- Reusing requires additional expenses: fuel needs to be reserved for recovery, facilities must be built for recycling, and the rocket must be transported back, inspected, repaired, and parts replaced—these all increase costs.
- The number of reuses doesn’t equal the actual number of launches; even if a rocket is designed for 20 reuses, it may not be able to achieve that in reality due to damage or failures. Even if it can, with only 3 launches per year, the lifespan would be quickly exhausted, making reuse unprofitable.
- The key is the ability to launch the recovered rockets again efficiently: China has already mastered rocket recovery, but true cost reduction depends on whether the recovered rockets can be launched successfully, with short reflight times and minimal parts replacement. Only when these conditions are met can reuse become a viable commercial model.
Final Reminder: Ask Four Questions Before Getting Excited About Low Prices
Next time you see an astonishingly low price per kilogram, ask yourself these questions:
1. Is it the cost or the price?
2. Does it include additional fees such as transportation, testing, and insurance?
3. Is the unit “kilogram” based on maximum payload capacity or actual load?
4. Has the rocket been reused? How many times has it been successfully recovered and launched?
Only when “20,000 yuan” can be consistently achieved in real launches and still generate profits for companies will it move from a future goal to a current reality. For now, we’re still some way off.