Summary of the Core Message
The central argument of this article is that AI is currently in a stage of "hype" and immaturity. The true sign of its maturity will be when it moves from being a topic of frequent discussion to becoming an invisible infrastructure that is taken for granted. By comparing the development paths of historical technologies such as the steam engine, electricity, and the internet, the article suggests that AI is in the latter half of a bubble. Companies are shifting from focusing on grand visions to addressing practical, technical details. In the future, the prefix "AI" will gradually disappear from product names, and AI will become as integral to our lives as water, electricity, and gas. Only then will we truly consider that AI has arrived.
Detailed Analysis
1. **The more a technology is emphasized, the less likely it is to become like essential infrastructure**
Today, almost every product is labeled with "AI" (AI phones, AI-powered offices, AI in healthcare), and companies dedicate strategic efforts to AI development, while investment firms compete in this field. This indicates that AI has not yet established itself firmly. It's similar to how people debated whether machines would replace craftsmen when the steam engine was first introduced, or worried about the safety of electricity during its early adoption, or discussed whether businesses should use the internet. These concerns have faded because technologies like steam, electricity, and the internet have become essential infrastructure—something we use every day without thinking about them.
2. **Where is AI in the technological revolution curve? — In the latter half of a bubble, with disappointment setting in**
Technological revolutions do not follow a linear path but rather a cycle of anxiety, hype, following the trend, a bubble, disappointment, selection, widespread adoption, and eventual indifference. AI has just passed the peak of its bubble and is entering a phase of disillusionment. People are no longer asking how powerful AI can be but whether it offers real value for the money spent. For example, while AI can write code, it doesn't necessarily reduce overall software development costs; although it can generate content, it may not increase profits for companies; and while AI agents can automate processes, they may not be secure enough to integrate into critical business operations. These practical issues are bringing us back from the fantasy of AI's omnipotence to a more realistic assessment of its capabilities.
3. **Companies are starting to calculate the costs and benefits**
Previously, companies discussed the potential of AI in terms of future visions (e.g., how it would disrupt industries). Now, they are asking more practical questions: How much will it cost? How much can it save? Who will be responsible for any issues that arise? When will human intervention be needed? These are all engineering-related questions, not just empty promises. For instance, although AI can create impressive results in demonstrations, real-world applications must consider the worst-case scenarios (e.g., potential errors that could lead to customer loss). This shift reflects a recognition that AI needs to be treated as a tool rather than a mere concept.
4. **Signs of AI's maturity: The disappearance of the "AI" prefix**
The most obvious sign of AI's maturity will be the gradual fading of the word "AI" from product names. AI-powered features will become part of standard functionality, just as "internet-driven" is no longer mentioned when referring to e-commerce. Other indicators include:
- Signal 1: Companies will no longer have separate AI strategies; AI will be integrated into all their operations.
- Signal 2: Knowing how to use AI will no longer be a special skill (just like knowing how to use a search engine is no longer highlighted on resumes).
- Signal 3: Products won't boast about their AI capabilities; users will only care about the quality and reliability of the results.
- Signal 4: Society will adopt a more balanced view of AI, neither overestimating nor underestimating its potential.
5. **The ultimate state of technological maturity: From a fleeting trend to a fundamental part of society**
Currently, AI is a topic of public debate, either as a revolutionary force or a threat to jobs. When it matures, it will become an integral part of our daily lives, like electricity and the internet. We will use it without thinking about it, knowing when and how to apply it effectively (e.g., using AI to quickly organize data) and understanding its limitations (e.g., the need for quality control in AI-generated content). At that point, AI will no longer be a hot topic in the news; it will simply be an invisible part of our technology landscape.
Conclusion
The true era of AI will not come when everyone is talking about it, but when no one is mentioning it anymore. By then, it will have become an integral part of our lives and work, just like electricity and the internet do today. This might seem quiet, but it will mark the completion of a significant technological revolution.