Summary of Key Points
As the "first domestic humanoid robot company to go public," Yushu Technology has generated unprecedented interest in its IPO: the online lottery success rate hit a record low for the STAR Market (0.018%), with oversubscription exceeding 8,288 times, and the number of retail investors participating surpassed all records set by the STAR Market. The strategic investor lineup is impressive, including institutions such as the National Social Security Fund, DeepSeek, PetroChina, Tencent, and employee investment funds. The company raised 6.1 billion yuan, 45% more than its initial target, with 85% of the funds allocated to research and development. There is significant disagreement about its potential market value, ranging from 10.9 billion to 40 billion yuan. Founder Wang Xingxing responded to doubts with confidence, expressing optimism about the company's prospects. Market analysts predict that a single share could generate a profit of 170,000 to 350,000 yuan upon listing, and if the market value reaches 20 billion yuan, Wang Xingxing could become the "richest person on the STAR Market."
I. How Popular was the IPO?
The enthusiasm for Yushu Technology's IPO was unprecedented:
- Extremely low success rate: The online lottery success rate was only 0.018%, meaning that less than 2 out of every 10,000 retail investors won a share, which is 26 times lower than the highest rate for this year (0.47%) for Changxin Technology.
- Frenzied retail demand: 9.78 million retail investors participated, setting a new record for the STAR Market (surpassing Changxin Technology's 9.42 million). The total number of valid applications reached 53.6 billion shares, with oversubscription at 8,288 times—indicating that for every share offered, 8,288 people were willing to buy it.
- No increase in success rate even with additional shares: Even when 10% of the shares allocated to institutional investors were made available online, the success rate only rose to 0.018%, remaining the lowest in the STAR Market's history.
Such a low success rate means that winning a share is as difficult as winning a 5-million-yuan lottery ticket, which has led to high expectations for profits upon listing. Based on the average first-day increase on the STAR Market, winning a share could result in a profit of 350,000 yuan; even if the market value is conservatively estimated at 2 billion yuan, a profit of 170,000 yuan is possible.
II. Who is Investing?
The list of strategic investors for Yushu Technology includes some of the most influential institutions, indicating widespread confidence in the company's prospects:
- National and tech giants: The National Social Security Fund, PetroChina, China Southern Power Grid, China Telecom, and Tencent are all on the list. These organizations either have resources (e.g., PetroChina's industrial applications) or technology (e.g., Tencent's AI) that can help Yushu expand its business.
- AI partners and securities firms: DeepSeek (an AI company) has promised to provide model and computing support; CITIC Securities not only invested but also brought in five other securities firms, showing the overall industry's optimism.
- Employee investment: Employees launched two investment funds, raising 270 million yuan, with Chairman Wang Xingxing personally investing 15 million yuan. The participation of 161 people, including the financial director, demonstrates internal support for the company's future.
The involvement of these institutions not only provides funding but also valuable industry resources and credibility, giving investors confidence in Yushu Technology.
III. What Will the Funds Be Used For?
85% of the raised funds will be invested in research and development, focusing on the entire humanoid robot industry chain:
- Four main areas of investment: 2 billion yuan for intelligent robot models (the "brain"), 1.1 billion yuan for robot body development, 445 million yuan for new product development, and 624 million yuan for building manufacturing facilities—covering all aspects from technology to production capacity.
- Performance expectations: The company expects revenue of 1.05 to 1.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2026 (a 35%-45% increase) and net profit of 258 million to 306 million yuan. Although the growth rate slowed in the first quarter of 2026 (revenue increased by 68%, non-recurring net profit decreased by 52%), the founder attributed this to a larger base and increased industry competition, as well as higher marketing expenses during the Spring Festival.
This significant investment in R&D shows that Yushu Technology aims to become more than just an assembler; it wants to control core technologies and dominate the entire industry chain.
IV. Market Value Disputes: 20 Billion Yuan—A Starting Point or a Goal?
There is considerable disagreement about Yushu Technology's market value:
- Conservative estimate: DBS International estimates a market value of 10.9 billion yuan, citing the scarcity of humanoid robots and its leading global market share, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 32 times for 2026.
- Optimistic estimate: CITIC Securities predicts a price-to-sales ratio of 20 times (requiring revenue to triple to 11.5 billion yuan); early investor Yu Wenchao believes a market value of over 4 billion yuan in the short term is reasonable, similar to overseas competitors. Pre-listing consensus prices have reached 23.9 billion yuan (about 355 million US dollars), with a 75% chance of exceeding 20 billion yuan.
- Critics point out: The price-to-earnings ratio of 219 times is higher than the industry average of 38 times, but the founder argues that it is reasonable given the company's expected net profit for 2025.
If the market value reaches 20 billion yuan, Wang Xingxing (holding 30% of the shares) would become worth 6 billion yuan, surpassing Chen Weiliang from Muxi Shares and becoming the richest person on the STAR Market.
V. Founder's Response to Doubts
Wang Xingxing responded to market skepticism with confidence:
- High price-to-earnings ratio: "Based on expected net profit for 2025, the ratio is 92 times, not 219 times. Our industry has significant potential, so the valuation is reasonable."
- Robots as toys? "Remote controls are safety features, similar to the steering wheel in autonomous cars—they allow for emergency stops; robots are not just toys."
- **Weaknesses in the 'brain' technology?": "We have developed WMA (World Model) and VLA (Vision-Language-Action models), which are among the best in the world."
- **Will the stock price fall below the issue price?": "Let's wait and see what happens after the listing."
These responses address common concerns and demonstrate confidence in the company's technology and future prospects.
Conclusion
The popularity of Yushu Technology's IPO reflects the market's excitement for humanoid robots, a new and emerging sector. As the first domestic company to list in this field, its scarcity and technological leadership have attracted substantial capital interest. Despite the varying estimates for its market value, the strong investor interest and heavy investment in R&D suggest it could become a star stock on the STAR Market. The actual rise in its price will depend on market sentiment and future performance.
(Note: The analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.)