Summary of Key Points
Zelenskyy's first official visit to Serbia, along with the rapid exchange of visits between the leaders of the two countries, marks a new phase in their relations. However, this does not indicate that Serbia has suddenly "aligned itself with Ukraine." Instead, it reflects Serbia's long-term strategy of balancing its core interests—sovereignty over Kosovo, energy security, EU membership aspirations, domestic public opinion, and economic development. Serbia adopts a tactical approach by "breaking down issues into smaller parts" (treating matters such as territory, energy, and the military-industrial sector separately), seeking mutual benefits (exchanging support for territorial integrity with Ukraine), and maintaining multi-directional connections (with Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the US) to avoid being tied to any one power. Essentially, this is a small country's wisdom for surviving in the complex game of great powers.
Detailed Analysis
1. The "Core Bargain" in Serbia-Ukraine Relations: Mutual Support for Territorial Integrity
Serbia's main concern is Kosovo (it does not recognize its independence), while Ukraine's primary concern is its own territorial integrity (it opposes Russian occupation). The two countries have reached a mutual agreement:
- Vučić reaffirmed his support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity;
- Zelenskyy made it clear that Ukraine does not recognize the independence of Kosovo.
In simple terms: It's like two neighbors helping each other out in international situations—Zelenskyy's visit to Serbia led to Kosovo's capital, Pristina, immediately removing a "Free Ukraine" banner that had been there for four years, which is a tangible diplomatic victory for Serbia.
2. Serbia's Dilemma between Domestic Public Opinion and International Pressure
There is a strong pro-Russian sentiment in Serbia (due to NATO's bombing of the Yugoslav Federation in 1999, many see the Russia-Ukraine war as Russia against NATO), but the government cannot offend the EU or the US:
- Public opinion: Many people believe that Kosovo belongs to Serbia and Crimea belongs to Russia;
- Government: It officially does not recognize Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory and does not participate in sanctions against Russia, yet it cannot completely cut ties with Russia (due to energy dependence and the need for Russian support on the Kosovo issue).
In simple terms: The government is caught between two opposing forces—pro-Russian sentiment from the public and pressure from the EU and the US.
3. The Realities of Energy and Economy: Cannot Rely Solely on Russia
Serbia's energy supply (natural gas, oil) has long relied on Russia, but US sanctions have created a dilemma:
- Russian-controlled Serbian oil company NIS was sanctioned by the US, forcing Serbia to seek alternatives (such as purchasing natural gas from Azerbaijan);
- The signing of a free trade agreement with Ukraine could solve long-standing issues related to Serbia's WTO membership (agricultural disputes with Ukraine) and open up opportunities for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine (infrastructure, energy markets).
In simple terms: Serbia was previously dependent on Russian energy; now that the US is restricting this supply, it needs to diversify its sources to ensure energy security and economic stability.
4. The Dilemma of the Military-Industrial Sector: Wanting Profit but Avoiding Offending Russia
Serbia's military-industrial sector employs 24,000 people, and the Russia-Ukraine war has increased demand for ammunition. Selling ammunition to Ukraine directly could offend Russia:
- Serbia sells ammunition through third countries like Poland and the Czech Republic (officially to these countries, but actually to Ukraine);
- Under Russian pressure, Vučić initially halted exports but later changed his stance, saying, "It's okay to sell to EU countries; I don't care what they do with it."
In simple terms: Small companies need to find ways to make money without offending their major customers (Russia) while still meeting the demands of another important customer (the EU).
5. The Art of Balancing among Great Powers: Not Taking a Side, Only Adjusting Positions
Serbia avoids taking a clear side and constantly adjusts its stance among Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the US:
- It greeted the Russian ambassador before and after the visit to Kiev, explaining its intentions;
- It supports Ukraine's EU membership but uses Ukraine's own EU accession as an example to question the EU's double standards;
- Serbia-Russia relations have shifted from a more emotional level (brotherly ties) to a more pragmatic one, focusing on practical issues (energy, NIS company).
In simple terms: Serbia is like someone walking a tightrope, balancing between Russia and the EU while considering domestic public opinion.
Conclusion
All of Serbia's actions are aimed at protecting its core interests—Kosovo, energy, and economy—without allowing any one power to use it as a pawn in their conflicts. It may seem awkward, but for a small country like Serbia, this is often the most realistic way to survive in such a complex international environment.