Summary of Key Points
In the first half of 2026, both mainland China and Hong Kong saw trade growth that exceeded expectations, with AI-related products (such as chips and servers) being the main driving force. The upgrade in mainland exports has promoted the development of advanced manufacturing industries. As a trading hub, Hong Kong has shifted its re-exported goods structure from mainly finished products to mainly semi-finished products and raw materials, reflecting the mainland's rising position in the global value chain. Trade plays a significant role in supporting the economies of both regions: the mainland relies on exports to drive industrial upgrading, while Hong Kong depends on trade to maintain growth and employment. The AI industry chain is being restructured with Asia at its core, and Hong Kong can transform short-term trade benefits into a long-term regional hub by upgrading its infrastructure, optimizing services, and expanding its network.
I. AI as the "Main Driver of Growth," Both Regions' Trade Soaring
The trade growth in both the mainland and Hong Kong in the first half of the year was inseparable from the impact of AI. The global development of AI requires a large amount of computing hardware (such as chips and servers), and there has been a surge in demand for these products, with Asia being at the heart of the AI industry chain (countries like China, South Korea, and Japan controlling key aspects such as chip design and manufacturing). The mainland's exports of high-tech products (such as integrated circuits) have grown rapidly, and Hong Kong's re-exported AI-related products have also become a major driver of growth. In short, the AI boom has led to excellent sales of high-tech goods in both regions, directly boosting trade figures.
II. Trade's Impact on the Economies of Both Regions: One Promotes Upgrading, the Other Ensures Employment
- Mainland: Exports Drive Industrial Upgrading
Exports not only contribute to GDP (with a net export contribution of 0.8 percentage points) but also invigorate advanced manufacturing industries. For example, the export of machinery and electrical products increased by 20%, accounting for 63% of total exports, and the growth rate of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing was much faster than that of the overall industry. Export orders have forced factories to operate at full capacity and have also prompted companies to upgrade their technologies, effectively using external momentum to push industries towards higher levels.
- Hong Kong: Trade is the Lifeline for Economic Growth
Hong Kong's GDP growth exceeded expectations (4.3% in the second quarter, far exceeding initial targets), mainly driven by goods exports (which grew by 28.8% in the same quarter). More importantly, the trade and logistics industries are pillars of Hong Kong's economy, accounting for nearly 19% of GDP in 2024 and employing 15% of the population—twice as many people as the financial industry does. This indicates that trade not only drives economic growth but also provides jobs for the general population, acting as a link between the economy and people's livelihoods.
III. Changes in Hong Kong's Re-exported Goods: From "Finished Products" to "Parts," the Mainland's Industries Are Getting Stronger
In the past, 54% of the goods re-exported from Hong Kong to the mainland were capital goods (such as machinery and equipment); now, 46% are raw materials and semi-finished products (such as chip components). This reflects the upgrading of the mainland's industries: whereas before we may have only assembled finished products for global sale, we are now providing high-value "intermediate parts," moving up the global value chain from "downstream assembly" to "upstream manufacturing" (more profitable segments). For instance, the proportion of semi-finished products exported by the mainland has increased from 24% in 2015 to 34% today, reflecting the advancement of the mainland's industries.
IV. The AI Industry Chain is Concentrating in Asia, and Hong Kong's Role as a Hub Needs to Be Upgraded
The trade in global AI hardware mainly occurs within Asia (for example, South Korean chips are sold to China, and Chinese servers are exported worldwide). Hong Kong's role as a hub is no longer just a channel from the mainland to the rest of the world but can become a multi-lateral hub within Asia. For example, Hong Kong is now importing more goods from Asian chip-producing countries like South Korea and then reselling them elsewhere, indicating that it is connecting with more Asian nations and seizing opportunities in the reconfiguration of the AI industry chain.
V. How Can Hong Kong Seize These Opportunities? Three Strategies to Transform Short-Term Benefits into Long-Term Advantages
To turn the trade growth driven by AI into a long-term advantage, Hong Kong can focus on three areas:
- Physical Connectivity: Upgrading Logistics Infrastructure
AI products (such as chips) are valuable and require rapid delivery. Hong Kong can upgrade its airports and ports, implement smart logistics (such as automated freight stations), and coordinate with cities in the Greater Bay Area for smoother customs clearance and warehousing, giving priority to the circulation of high-value electronic products.
- Soft Power: Strengthening Trade Services
Hong Kong's status as a free port and its professional services (such as trade financing and insurance) are its strengths. In the future, it can handle more trades that do not physically pass through Hong Kong, allowing for settlement and financing to be completed locally. For example, using electronic bills of lading instead of paper documents can make trade more efficient.
- Network Expansion: Broadening Partnerships
In addition to cooperating with the mainland, Hong Kong can strengthen ties with Asian chip-producing countries like South Korea and also expand into emerging markets in the Middle East and Latin America. It can transform from a "two-way gateway" between the mainland and the world into a multi-lateral hub for Asia, helping mainland companies enter international markets and enhancing its ability to allocate resources.
In summary, this trade growth is not incidental but a result of the development of the AI industry and the upgrading of the mainland's industries. By leveraging its hub advantages, Hong Kong can secure a solid position in the future global industry chain.