Summary of Key Points
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming the “new engine” driving global economic growth, directly boosting GDP growth in major economies across Europe, America, and Asia through investment expansion and trade reshaping. It is also altering the flow of cross-border capital and industrial chains. Europe focuses on policy support for AI and the construction of computing infrastructure, while Asia has become a core supplier of AI hardware due to its advantages in semiconductor manufacturing. However, the global economy faces risks associated with over-reliance on AI: a slowdown in AI investment or missed technological expectations could lead to sudden regional growth declines, global output losses, market structure imbalances, and credit risks.
1. AI as the New Engine of the Global Economy: Both Data and Investment Are Driving Growth
The economic impact of AI is already evident in the data: The UK’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, with the information and communications sector contributing nearly half of that growth; the eurozone’s growth of 0.4% exceeded market expectations, largely driven by a surge in AI investment. Experts at Deutsche Bank believe that AI will be a “structural theme” over the next few years—similar to the internet 20 years ago. Intelligent AI systems have accelerated growth momentum, with the amount of text and data processed by AI increasing by nearly 20 times in just one year.
Investment in AI is also surging: Goldman Sachs predicts that the capital expenditures of global hyperscalers (such as Amazon and Google) will reach $1.1 trillion by 2027, with these four companies alone spending five to six times more in 2026 than they did five years earlier—equivalent to each company spending tens of billions of dollars annually on building the “supercomputer rooms” (data centers) required for AI.
2. Europe Takes the Lead in AI Infrastructure: A Multifaceted Approach
Europe treats AI as a national priority:
- UK: The new Prime Minister, Bernham, has made AI a priority in the cabinet and aims to “maintain technological sovereignty.” Enterprises spent £22.1 billion (about 200 billion yuan) on factory equipment in the second quarter, with high-tech manufacturing (such as computers and electronics) seeing a 10.7% increase in output, leading all manufacturing sectors for the first time.
- EU: The EU is investing €30 billion in building “AI superfactories” and plans to establish seven computing hubs across member states: four medium-sized facilities with 75,000 AI chips each, and three large-scale facilities with more than 100,000 chips each. €10 billion of this comes from the EU and its member states, with the remaining €200 billion to be raised from private companies. Tenders will close in November, and construction is scheduled to begin in 2027.
- Germany and France: Deutsche Telekom and NVIDIA have jointly built an AI cloud factory, investing €1 billion, which has increased Germany’s AI computing power by 50%. Siemens received a record €1.9 billion order for a data center, and related revenues grew by 45% in the first half of the year. The French technology sector is driving industrial production, with plans to deploy exaflops (ultra-fast supercomputers) by 2026.
3. Asia Becomes the “AI Hardware Factory”: Export and Manufacturing Are Booming
Asia, thanks to its semiconductor manufacturing and core component production, has become a global supplier of AI hardware:
- ASEAN+3 (China, Japan, South Korea + ASEAN): Half of all global AI-related trade passes through this region. The export increase in the first quarter was nearly two-thirds due to AI products, and AMRO (the ASEAN+3 economic research office) has raised its regional growth forecast for 2026 to 4.1%.
- South Korea: Exports grew by 62.9% in July, with semiconductors and computers accounting for over 80% of the increase. South Korean exports usually lead Asia by a quarter, indicating continued demand for AI hardware.
- Southeast Asia: Singapore’s exports grew by 49.3% in June, driven by demand for AI hardware; Malaysia’s GDP grew by 5.8% in the second quarter, with electrical and electronic exports rising by 70.5%; Vietnam’s exports increased by 25% in July, led by the electronics sector—indicating that the benefits of AI are spreading throughout the Southeast Asian supply chain.
4. Over-reliance on AI? Hidden Risks for the Global Economy
Despite the popularity of AI, over-reliance can pose problems:
- Regional Growth Risks: AMRO warns that if AI investment returns to 2024 levels, ASEAN+3’s growth rate could drop to 2.5% in 2027—the lowest since the Asian financial crisis of 1997 (excluding the pandemic).
- Global Output Losses: The IMF suggests that if AI does not achieve the expected efficiency improvements and tech companies stop spending, global output could decline by 1.2% over two years—equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized country.
- Market Structure Imbalances: The semiconductor sector now accounts for 19% of the S&P 500 index, the highest in history; problems in this industry could cause significant market fluctuations.
- Credit Risks: Corporate debt has increased by 125% compared to before the Silicon Valley bank crisis, and the technology sector’s debt performance is near its worst since 2001. Credit spreads (the cost of borrowing) are rising, and some small tech companies may struggle to repay their debts.
Conclusion
AI is a powerful driver of the current economy, but it is also a double-edged sword: When used wisely, it can boost growth; however, over-reliance can lead to hidden dangers. Europe and Asia each have their advantages, but the world must be cautious about the risk of putting all its eggs in one basket. Individuals can look for opportunities in AI-related industries, but they should also be aware of market volatility—after all, no sector remains immune from downturns forever.