Summary of Key Points
Since June this year, humanity may be on the verge of the largest wave of IPOs in history: three giants—SpaceX (valued at $1.8 trillion), OpenAI (valued at $852 billion), and Anthropic (valued at $965 billion)—have successively applied for listing, with the total amount raised potentially exceeding the sum of all IPOs supported by U.S. venture capital in the past 2000 years. Among them, Anthropic has drawn the most attention: it secretly submitted its prospectus but made a grand announcement, with its valuation surpassing that of OpenAI; it claims to be profitable, but there are doubts about the details; as a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), it faces the balance between commercial interests and security; the differences in their business models will lead to divergent product trajectories after listing. Venture capitalists (VCs), under the pressure of their fund cycles, are a significant driving force behind this wave of IPOs.
1. The Paradoxical Practice of Secret IPOs: Hiding Cards While Attracting Attention?
IPOs are supposed to be public events, but Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX have chosen the "secret submission" option—under the JOBS Act of 2012, eligible companies can first submit their prospectuses (S-1s, which contain core data such as revenue, costs, and executive salaries) to the SEC for review. They can make adjustments until they are satisfied, and then disclose them only 15 days before the roadshow.
Benefits of secret submission:
- Privately refine the data: Allow companies to tweak their numbers with the SEC without exposing incorrect information prematurely;
- Fight information warfare: Prevent competitors (like Anthropic and OpenAI) from seeing sensitive information such as computing costs and customer dependencies;
- Leave a backup option: If the market is poor, they can terminate the process at any time without the stigma of an IPO failure.
Why the grand announcement?
Although the content submitted in secret remains hidden, the act of submitting it itself is made public—a carefully crafted form of "information asymmetry":
- Boost valuation: Anthropic has just completed a Series H financing (valued at $965 billion), and the expectation of an IPO may encourage investors to offer higher prices;
- Stabilize customers and the team: Corporate clients fear company failures, and employees worry about not being able to exercise their stock options; an official IPO announcement provides reassurance;
- Create buzz: The news that a "trillion-dollar AI company is going public" can spur action from brokers and institutions even before the roadshow begins.
2. Anthropic's Profitability: Real Earnings or a Digital Magic Trick?
Anthropics claims to have turned a profit in Q2 of 2026 (operating profit of $559 million), but there are many doubts:
- Profiting during a discount period: It signed computing contracts with SpaceX and xAI at discounted rates for the first two months, which coincided with Q2—lower costs naturally lead to higher profits. Whether it can continue to be profitable at full price (monthly computing bills could reach $375 million) is uncertain;
- Non-GAAP accounting: Private companies do not have to follow GAAP standards; it's like telling parents you have enough pocket money without including the cost of buying game skins;
- Rapid growth in ARR: Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased from $1 billion at the end of 2024 to nearly $44 billion by May 2026, but its total revenue is only $5 billion, indicating a sudden surge. Given that its user base is far smaller than OpenAI's (800 million active users), this high valuation seems more based on the value to corporate clients (80% of revenue comes from large companies) rather than user scale.
3. VCs' "Expedited Anxiety": Time to Turn Profit or Risk Losing Money?
Behind this wave of IPOs is the pressure for VCs to exit their investments:
- Fund cycles are coming to an end: VC funds typically last 10 years, and most AI investments were made between 2018 and 2021. These funds will expire in 2026, and investors (LPs) want their returns;
- The window is finally opening: The U.S. IPO market was nearly closed in the previous three years (rising interest rates and market panic led to many tech IPOs failing). Now, with lower interest rates and a recovering market, it's the perfect time to realize profits;
- The AI bubble must burst: AI valuations have multiplied, but they were mostly nominal; only by going public can VCs and founders convert this paper wealth into real cash.
4. Anthropic's Special Status: Balancing Profitability and Avoiding Trouble After Listing?
Anthropic is a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), mandated to develop AI for the long-term benefit of humanity. Its board includes independent trustees to ensure its security mission is not overshadowed by commercial interests. However, after listing, it faces dilemmas:
- Cost pressures: Monthly computing bills of $375 million mean it must either raise prices (users will bear the cost, such as increased fees for Claude Pro or reduced free usage) or face poor financial reports (GAAP requirements will make accounting less flexible and reduce profit margins);
- The balance between security and growth: Corporate clients need stability and compliance, while Wall Street demands high profit margins. For example, more powerful models like Claude Mythos may be restricted due to safety concerns, which affects growth.
For users, the details in the S-1 prospectus (once disclosed) will reveal computing costs and user numbers, helping them predict whether subscription fees will increase or free features will be reduced.
5. The Two Paths Taken by AI Giants: Anthropic Targets the Premium Market, OpenAI Targets the Masses?
The valuation approaches of Anthropic and OpenAI are vastly different, leading to divergent product strategies after listing:
- Anthropic: Focused on corporate services, with 80% of revenue coming from large companies (including eight Fortune 100 firms). It will prioritize stability and compliance, releasing features cautiously and possibly limiting more powerful models;
- OpenAI: Targeting the consumer internet market with an active user base of 800 million. It will be more aggressive in monetization through ads, the Sora app, and other methods, as user volume is its core asset.
Users' choices between these AI platforms reflect their preference for premium stability or affordable accessibility. In the future, Claude may become more expensive but more reliable, while ChatGPT might be more accessible but with more advertisements.
In Conclusion
This wave of IPOs is not just a capital frenzy; it marks a turning point for the AI industry as it moves from a bubble to practical application. The future of the AI tools we use every day—whether prices rise or ads increase—is hidden in the S-1 prospectuses that will soon be made public. Even if you don't trade stocks, it's worth watching, as it directly affects your wallet and daily experience.